Method And Analytic Demonstration For The Layout Of The Distribution Park In Regional Central City

With the economy globalization and economic sustainable development of our country, logistics is becoming a more and more important industry of China's National Economic System and new growth areas of economy, and it will play an important role in developing economy. Distribution park is a primary joint of logistics system. It is a weak part in logistics development of our country, so strengthing planning and constructing of distribution park is important to develop logistics. The layout and planning of distribution park relates to some problems involving scale, number, location and function etc. This paper studies the following issues:Status of logistics and related industry in Changchun'cityDevelopment status is introduced in detail, which include logistics and related industry, the industry of freight transportation and transport facilities. It will offer the basis for resources conformity.The analyzing and forcasting of volume of freightVolume of freight (vof) is corredated to logistics task quantity. Because there is no special statistical data, logistics task quantity is calculated only by vof. As highway freight volume is 80 percent of vof of highway and railway, logistics task quantity also can be calculated by highway freight volume. Highway freight volume in future year in Changchun'city is predicted by four quantitative estimation method which are regression forcasting method, grey model method, exponential smoothing method, method of set pair analysis classified prediction. Forecasting logistics task quantity and evaluating number of logistics parkLogistics is inbound (or outbound) volume of freight of distribution park. It is one of main basis of layout and planning of logistics infrastructure. The paper concludes the proportion of freight volume classified by freight sort to volume of freight by analyse, and gains data of future years. By expert research, the proportion of logistics task quantity classified by freight sort to related freight volume is calculated, and then is number of distribution park which minimize the distribution cost and construction cost. It is a exploration work in the paper.Evaluaiton index selection Evaluation index selection method mainly includes consequence method and complex method, etc. It refers to principle of location of distribution park and the known evaluation index system and put forward five evaluation index according to actualities and logistics resources. The weight of index and its' confirmed means are analyzed. Delphi expert assessment is adopted in the paper.The decision and evaluation method of the location of distribution parkThe known methods include DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) and AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). It is the first time for coordinate analysis method to apply in it. The method consider the advantage and disadvantage of project simultaneously and evaluate the most profitable project scientifically.The policy and countermeasures of ensuring the development of distribution parkThe policy of the building of distribution park is discussed in the artile. The paper discussed the countermeasures to develop distribution park about logistics standardlization, information platform of logistics and cultivation of talented personnel.The innovation of the paper embodies several aspects as follows:It considers the status of logistics resource, such as warehousing, freight field and station, etc. It integrates the resource of planning distribution park.According to freight volume classified by freight sort, it brings forward calculating the proportion of the logistics task quantity to related freight volume classified by freight sort and forcasting logistics task quantity in future year.It takes the lead in using coordinate analysis method in process of selecting location of distribution park. It's practicability and maneuverability are nice.