Risk Management Of Project

This thesis begins with the knowledge system of project management, analyses the whole course of risk management and sets forth the method and program of project risk identification, risk appraisement and risk monitoring in project minutely. Finally, It shows a risk case of building project focal point for the investment decision of early stage with qualitative and quantitative analysis.Chapter 1 Discuss the important concept, method and knowledge system of project risk management, such as the definition of project, the knowledge system of project management (PMBOKX the intension of risk, the content of risk management and so on, carry out the risk analysis of building project emphatically.Chapter 2 Mainly introduce the tool and technology of project risk identification, such as checking table, the rules of systems analysis (WBS) , the method of SWOT technology. Thinking of the demerit for every tool, hence author emphasize that we should appraise the gained information resource synthetically.Chapter 3 Explain how to go on the estimation and assessment of project risk , put forward the tool and technology of project risk analysis ( as AHP, probability and sensitivity analysis ). When analyzing project risk quantitatively, first we should have definite warranty, do not surmise risk without foundation; Secondly, distinguish confirmed project from unconfirmed project in quantitativeanalysis. When using two important tools of quantitative risk analysis--probability and sensitivity analysis, one side is to estimate the probability of risk variable exactly; the other side is to judge and analyze the guidelines of probability analysis truly, as square margin, expected figure, disperse modulus. Throughquantifying risk, it can strengthen our sense of risk management.Chapter 4 Elaborate the basic method of monitoring project risk. In order to carry into execution monitoring project risk, it is essential to establish perfect replying risk plan. The main steps is: lessening risk, take precautions against risk (as project method, instructing method, program method), conveying riskCselling, inviting public bidding, the contract of absolving obligation, insurance and guarantee), avoidance, leave behind and measure in support.Chapter 5 A risk management example. First, analyze the various possible existent risk factors of this project systematically. Secondly, study its sensitivity factor thorough quantitative research relative deeply, its aim is to gain the latent influence of quantifying assessment risk for the project, as well as establishing and putting in practice a plan in order to control the negative influence in minimum level.The building has total 130500 square in architectural area, superior geographical location and tremendously potential value, its overall investment is ?4.26 hundreds million. This chapter first studies the market from p\ace* environment all around^ traffic and market requirement, then analyzes systematically financing risk and organic risk of joint venture. On the basis of foregoing analysis, it establishes some parameter of risk quantifying analysis, calculates its selling revenue^ running expense and cash flow form, uses sensitivity analysis to gain best sensitivity factor. As the uncertain essence of risk, it is extremely important to analyze probability factor of the project. So we confirm the probability form of every variable, then calculate present value of each possible event according to different constitutes of risk variable; and sort all possible events according to their present values from small to big, calculate accumulative probability, square margin and disperse modulus, thus analyze the risk of project quantitatively, provide quantitative support for supervisor when they will make a decision.Comparing with international advanced level, our country has great gap on the link of how to apply theory of project risk management to practice of project management, especially short of system research in project risk management. On the basi...