The Bearing Capacity Of Water Resources In The Tarim River's Lower Reaches

Because of long-term blanking , lead to the fact the water table to drop, the vegetation declines , desertificate and aggravate in the Tarim Basin river's low reaches. " green corridor " is close to destroying , it causes the great threat to local peasants and herdsmen which cause Tarim Basin visitor under the river out-of-balance seriously system. " getting green corridor " separate Takla Makan Desert and khoums deserts, which have important ecological meaning , economic meaning and strategic meaning.So study the water resource bearing capacity of the downstream area of river of Tarim Basin ,Optimize basin water resource distribution. Coordinate downstream constructions of ecological environment , people's lives , industry and agriculture and develop the relation with water resource,are important. it have important meanings to realize the sustainable development of the river valley of Tarim Basin.This thesis is on the basis of current situation of the downstream water resource of Tarim river.Based on the river social economic situation , the state of ecological environment , water resource state of low reaches of Tarim Basin at present, Take social economy development trend of this area as the backgroud. Combine the actual conditions of development and utilization of water resources of this area at present. With the distribution programme of the downstream water resource of river of Tarim Basin. Use the theory of systematic dynamics modeling. constracted the systematic dynamics model of Tarim Basin. By models, Use the principle of the equilibrium of supply and demand about water resource. Predict, output of agriculture,industry in local distract. The author calculate out the water resources capacity about low reaches of Tarim Basin finally. And according to the result predicted and existing problem, the author put forward the countermeasure of bearing the weight of strength of downstream water resource of Tarim river of Basin , offered some suggestions for sustainable utilization and sustainable development of the social economy in the area of the tarim river..