A Study Of Influence On GDP Due To China's Auto Industry Development And Forecasting Of Chinese Market Demand

From the year of 2002, China's auto industry entered a golden age as a result of unquenchable car demand from the increasingly wealthy population unquestionably. New vehicle especially new car sales are increasing quickly, and the investment on auto also reaches a new record. Under this background, the new guideline of auto industry will be released soon, and the auto development program of eleventh "5-year-plan" is being blaunched on.As a accessorial study for the auto development program of eleventh "5-year-plan", this thsis includes there parts: promotion on GDP due to development of China's auto industry, influence on employment opportunities due to development of China's auto industry and forecasting of China's market demand in the year of 2010.The first and second part mainly use input-output analyse method. The input data covers fixed-assess investment, vehicle final-utility, car final-utility and annual average income of 45 various departments from 1990 to 2002. After these data is inputed into the input-output model, which based on Input-Output Chart in 1997, we can get following results: promotion on GDP due to auto investment, promotion on GDP due to vehicle final-usage, promotion on GDP due to car final-usage, etc.Forecasting of auto demand in 2010 is integrated 94-GNP method by Professor Yangxing and forecasting about possession quantity of cars in country side by Yang Jianlong who services in Development Research Centre of the State Council. This thesis also supplies the forecasting result from 2004 to 2009 as well.I hope to do some favor for developing the auto development program of eleventh "5-year-plan" with the aid of Professor Hua Ruixing and Teacher Pan Wenqin, who also make the Input-output model based on Input-output Chart in 1997.