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The Research Of Demographic Dividend Of Regional Economic Development

Posted on:2012-08-29Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:T LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2167330338992262Subject:Regional Economics
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Since the 1990s, western scholars have done some researches on the relationship between changes of population age structure and economic development, and then the Demographic Dividend Theory was put forward. Its appearance aroused great concern and research home and abroad immediately and some research achievements were obtained. Because of One-Child policy, there are some characteristics such as short duration, large variations and old before rich and so on during the transition process of demographic problem. Research shows that the effects of Demographic Dividend on economic growth are different in different backgrounds. It stimulates economic growth under China's political and economic comprehensive background and it's one of the most important reasons for"China's economic miracle". Therefore, the research about demographic dividend and economic is an important component part of the sustainable development of regional economy.In this paper, using Baotou Inner Mongolia as the research object, adopting the population statistic data and economic development data of Baotou from1980 to 2008, the author analyzes the demographic transition process of Baotou according to the birth rate, mortality and the variation of natural population growth rate and the Demographic Dividend period through the characteristics of dependency ratio, the population proportion and aging index. Using the software SPSS, this paper selects the total population, total bring-up ratio, young population bring-up ratio, elderly population bring-up ratio, average age, aging index and so on to analyze correlatively with per capita GDP of Baotou. Then the author establishes the mathematical model about the demographic dividend and economic development to estimate demographic dividend's contribution to economic growth quantitatively. In order to research the future trend of Baotou population structure, using the population statistic data of 2000 as initial condition, the author establishes the Demographic control differential equation considering population migration, works out the next 50 years'total population, average age, average life, labor force, population bring-up ratio, aging index by MATLAB programming and analyzes the impact of the future'population situation on economic development in Baotou. And it will provide countermeasures to promote economic growth to make good use of demographic dividend period.
Keywords/Search Tags:demographic dividend, dependency ratio, ageing, population prediction region economy
PDF Full Text Request
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