| The development of Secondary vocational education is the strategic focus in current education development. It is an undoubt choice to develop secondary vocational school when we are on the new industrialization progress and the model change in economic development.On the basis of analysis on Hunan secondary vocational educaiton current scale and demand, we adpot age-reckoning method and ARIMA model metheod to forecast the school age population, in-school students of Hunan secondary vocational education in 2007-2020.The result of the forecast showes that the scale of in-school students of Hunan secondary vocational education can be divided into two stages during 2007-2020:1. Decrease period: from 2007, as the decrease of the number of school age students, the scale of in-school students decrease with a small rate, and this situation will continue to the year of 2011.2. Stable increase period: from the year 2012, because the number of school age students rises again, the in-school students of secondary vocational education will increase steadily.From the demand on vocational education of social economy in Hunan and the result of this forecast, we conclude that the secondary vocational education is fully capable of bear the reponsibility of nurturing enough secondary technicians and skilled workers for the economic development of Hunan economy.In the thesis, the author raises the following recommendations: the government should bear the responsibility and invest more in secondary vocational education; further vocational education and teaching reform, and adhere to harmonious development with scale, quality, benefit and structure; explore certain school-running model which is suitable for the current time and enlarge the school-running model space; raise more county-level vocational education centre and enhance the vocational education in rural areas. The previous ways may make the secondary vocational education develop soundly and sustainedly.
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