The Research On The Optimal Distribution Of High-Level Talents In Hebei Province

At knowledge economy ages, the position of high-level talents highlights gradually, and the human capital and technical progress have become endogenous variable of economic system .Under some condition, economy growth still achieve perfectly even without exogenous variable increasing. The constant accumulation of human capital is the driving force. The main motivation of economic development is Human capital accumulation and effective utilization under the knowledge economy background, which is also the inevitable choice for sustained development of Chinese economy, so does to HeBei province. HeBei makes the limited high-level talents exert the maximum effect with reasonable distribution and fluxion in order to attain'making the best possible use of men and exert them on proper place', which have profound meaning for economy development in HeBei.The paper makes use of both qualitative and quantitative analysis methods. At first, it summarizes the high-level person's related theories, such as the definition of talent and high-level talent and the proper human capital theories etc. Then it has been analyzed by evidence from HeBei high-level talents optimum distribution related theories and date with various econometric model methods. First, before the research on HeBei high-level talent optimal distribution, it makes comprehensive evaluation on present condition of HeBei talents with factor analysis, for a clear understanding of human capital level in HeBei. Second, it does research on the relation between HeBei high-level and middle-level talents and economic growth with Vector Autoregressive model and Variance Decomposition of time series analysis and studies the disposition efficiency of HeBei high-level talents. Third, it forecasts the gross of HeBei high-level talents in the next 5 years with gray model. Fourth, analyze the human capital market optimum distribution with Perfect Bayesian Nash Equilibrium game model. Finally, the paper puts forward to the suitable strategy of HeBei high-level talents'development optimum distribution.