The Application Of Simple Sub-Elements Model In System Dynamics

For a country's socio-economic development, the most direct impact on one of the factors is the quantity and structure of population changes, especially in such as China's huge population of the country, to clarify the future structure of the population is forecast to China's population pyramid and births, deaths, China's population policy formulation have a positive significance.Out of the national population macro-policy decision-making needs, the State Family Planning Commission project "Population macro decision-making and information management system" (PADIS), pinning hopes on the scientific research institutions through the work of China's population situation have made constructive comments.PADIS for the simple elements of the basic items in the prediction model, the only factors to consider its own population of births, deaths, migration of, to the neglect of other socio-economic development, to predict the future structural changes in the population, the use of demographic The total fertility rate of forecast-born population, Brass methods and models of life table population projections death, life tables based on principles of population structure and dynamics of the platform Vensim simple elements of the model simulation, the final data for the simulation results analysisPapers were discussed briefly at the first elements of the theory and application, combined with access to the data can be projected and actual needs, adopt various methods of births, deaths, migration forecast, and then separate forecasts for each module on principle. One use of the birth of the forecast total fertility rate law and the progressive total fertility rate, the use of the death Brass models and model life table method, the use of relocation of the United Nations mobility prediction method.Finally papers in the model system dynamics simulation platform Vensim above, and the results were analyzed.In this paper, the simulation results have been very good application of the model practical feasibility of strong, able to provide very good with the help of population policy,...