The Strategic Demand For Urban Construction Land

With the development of China's economy and society, and the background of central government's order to strengthen macro-control on land and the tend of a new compilation of general plan for land use planning, some new problems occurs in sustainable use and management on land resources. Land resource is a non-substitutable natural resource that men depend on to live, and the treatment to the conflict between land restrict, resource environment, factors and economic growth come to a emergent problem to study and resolve.On the basis of present situation of forecast the research on domestic and foreign cities construction land, this article proposed a theoretical research base, and has carried out a feasibility assessment to different of prediction models, furthermore, it also attempt to constructs a development dynamic model to perform a demand prediction on urban construction land as well as to explore the spatial regularities for expansion of construction land with the tool of GIS. Taking an example of Qingjiang County of Zhejiang Province, it provides case study and reference for the demand prediction, which introduces a referential evidence for land use planning and urban planning. The whole dissertation contains five parts as follows:The first part is an introduction, mainly introduces the paper research background, research significance, research situation at home and abroad, research objective, research content and research technical route.The second part is theoretical analysis on control of construction land and the demand forecast, and it proposes a theoretical basis for classification and features of construction land as well as control on urban construction land and relative demand prediction. It also analyzes internal and external force for expansion of the construction land.The third part is the prediction methods and relative assessment for urban construction land. On the basis of the abovementioned theories, this study does not follow the traditional method which take only urban population as a variable, instead, it attempts to adopt a combination of quantitative and qualitative method to establish adynamic model, and try to predict scale of urban construction land from population, economy, policy and transportation drives. The core of the prediction is, by introducing economy, policy and transportation drives, in addition to population, to perform an analysis into the main diving factors for expansion of construction land as well as its developing tendency. A qualitative method is used to adjust the driving parameters for the expansion, which modifies the parameters according to the contribution to the expansion of construction land and make a forecast. According to the real situation, the study can also be carried out with qualitative and semi-quantitative method for modification, so as to improve objectivity and feasibility for the prediction.The fourth part is case study. Take De Qing County of Zhejiang Province, this dissertation analysis the general situation and then perform a prediction for control and demand on the urban construction land. According to the real situation, the study can also be carried out with qualitative and semi-quantitative method for modification, so as to improve objectivity and feasibility for the prediction. The spatial patterns of the expansion is indicated with GIS method.The fifth part is the conclusion, which summaries the innovative points in this dissertation as well as problems and it also indicates directions for further study.