| Along with the process of world economic integration and the gradual formation of a global value chain system for labor division,complex networks and socio-economic effects based on trade activities between countries or regions have become increasingly prominent.The intimacy of a country with other node countries in the world trade network and its position as a trade intermediary often determine the scale and structure of its trade,which has an important impact on international carbon emissions.In recent years,the carbon emission effect of foreign trade has been widely concerned by the academic community.The existing research mainly focuses on the analysis of individual countries and related industries.Few studies have explored the impact of import and export on international carbon emissions based on the central dimension of trade networks.Based on the theoretical framework of environmental effects of foreign trade,this paper adds eigenvector centrality and intermediate centrality into the econometric model,focusing on the System Generalized Method of Moments(SGMM)estimation method,examining effects of import trade and export trade for international carbon respectively.Analyze countries of different income levels sub-sample data empirically,then based on theoretical and empirical study,propose relevant countermeasures and recommendations.This paper is divided into six chapters.Based on the realistic background,the first chapter introduced the research significance and related ideas.The second chapter summarizes the related literature:the international trade network?effects of trade on environment?combination of the two aspects.then make some review about it.The third chapter expands the classic "three effects" of the trade environment,then derive the environmental effects of trade based on the general trade model theoretically.The forth chapter analyzed the status of trade?centrality in trade network and carbon emission respectively.The fifth chapter uses OLS regression,regression of interaction items and generalized moment estimation method to analyze the effect of import and export trade on carbon emissions empirically under the background of world trade network.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,the sixth chapter concluded some points,then proposed targeted countermeasures and recommendations.In the part of theoretical research,the author analyzes the specific mechanism of trade's effects on carbon emission from scale effect,technical effect,structural effect,policy effect and investment effect firstly,then expands and deduces the general trade model to prove that increasing of economic scale can increases carbon emissions.Technology improvement can help reduce carbon emissions.Optimization of industrial structure is also helpful for emission reduction.The increase of foreign direct investment will reduce carbon emissions because of the potential technology introduction brought by it.However,the expansion of production scale caused by FDI may increase carbon emissions and make the host country a "pollution paradise".In addition,the stricter government's regulation for carbon emissions is,the more effective it is to reduce carbon emissions.Besides the direct impact of trade on carbon emissions,the author also analyzes the indirect impact of trade on carbon emissions from the perspective of crowded externalities and market power.That is,the stronger betweenness centrality of a country in the trade network,the greater the volume of import and export trade.The stronger eigenvector centrality one country has,the higher bargaining power in the network it has,that means it can avoid adverse effects of trade on the domestic environment to reduce domestic carbon emissions,such as more imports of high-carbon goods.In the part of empirical research,the author takes the relevant data of 121 countries(regions)within 2000-2014 as the sample,add the per capita GDP,the proportion of secondary industry in the total output value,the technical level,and the proportion of the net FDI inflow in GDP,the efficiency of government to the model as controlled variables.The volume of import and export trade,the betweenness centrality,and the eigenvector centrality are the core variables.First,the regression of the interaction term leads to the conclusion that import and export trade has a significant negative impact on carbon emissions.The centrality of eigenvectors is negatively correlated with carbon emissions per capita.The betweenness centrality is positively correlated with per capita carbon emissions,and the centrality all enhance the impact of trade on carbon emissions.Through generalized method of moments,it is concluded that a country's carbon emissions are positively affected by carbon emissions of the former two years,and import and export trade significantly reduces carbon emissions,betweenness centrality has a positive effect on carbon emissions,and the eigenvector centrality is significantly negative related with it.When the sample were divided into high-income,middle-income,and low-income countries respectively,we can come to the conclusions:the impact of trade on carbon emissions in the first two kinds of countries was significant,while effect in low-income countries were not significant.The eigenvector centrality is negatively correlated with carbon emissions,and the intermediary centrality is positively related.Import and export trade is helpful for reducing carbon emissions in high-income countries,especially import trade is more obvious,but they are not helpful for environment in middle-income countries,especially export trade is more disadvantageous.Based on the previous research conclusions,the author puts some targeted countermeasures and suggestions for countries of different income levels.For middle-income countries including China,they should consider environment more in trade,control trade scale.Export low-carbon goods more and import high-carbon goods more in the trade,improvement of structure will help reduce carbon emissions.For high-income countries,it is necessary to maintain a favorable trade structure in international trade,improve factor productivity further.At the same time,high-income countries are supposed to hold more international responsibility for reducing carbon emissions because they are the "environmental beneficiary" of trade.For both countries,they should improve their position in the trade network,avoid the negative impact of the betweenness centrality,and improve the positive impact of the eigenvector centrality. |
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