Study On Temporal-Spatial Variation Character Of Residential Price And Its Influencing Factors In Wuhan

The reform of urban land use system in our country is further thorough in recent years. The land value mechanism becomes more and more significant in distributing reasonably of urban land, the optimized layout of spatial structure and the save and intensive use of land. With the appearance of urban land value, the real estate price rises remarkably in city. It is an important topic for land manager to monitor the variation of urban land value and house price comprehensively,systematically, and accurately, to analyze the dynamic trend and the changing rule of real estate price in city and to monitor and regulate the urban land value and the house price reasonably. Also it is important basis in land exchange, the property development, the decision of construction investment and the tax reform of real estate.At present, the study on spatio-temporal variation of urban land value is still deficient and there is no systematic method that can effieiently work on this subject. Also the research result can not satisfy the need of current urban land value management. With the improvement of modern computer technology, it is possible to do the quantitative analysis instead of qualitative analysis on study of urban land value and house price.This article builds the Digital Land Price Model of residential price on basis of the data of residential price from 2002 to 2009 in Wuhan, using the spatial analysis function of the geographic information system Mapgis. Then the paper explains in detail on housing price time variation and spatial evolution rule, taking time series analysis and mathematical model as auxiliary.After analyzing the recent situation of real estate market of Wuhan, the paper carries on the macro analysis and the regional analysis separately to time variation of residential price in wuhan at first, using the data of residential price from first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2009 in Wuhan. Then it utilizes the different mathematical model to fit to the time series and residential price, selects the most appropriate mathematical model and forecasts housing price in three years on basis of the model.Followed this article builds the Digital Land Price Model of residential price in Wuhan on basis of the data of residential price from 2002 to 2009 after the essential revision to the data, using the spatial analysis function of the geographic information system software Mapgis. Through the housing price isogram, the three dimensional diagram, the profile graph, it analyzes thoroughly the overall construction and the partial characteristic of the spatial distribution of residential price in Wuhan.In order to analyze the the evolution characteristic of housing price spatial distribution, it establishes the Digital Land Price Model of residential price in 2005 and 2009 separately. Contrasting the housing price isogram, the three dimensional diagram, the profile graph in 2005 and 2009, it explains in detail on the spatial evolution tendency of residential price in the overall construction and the partial direction in Wuhan. Then it analyzes the major influencing factors of spatial distribution of residential price in Wuhan. Finally using the Digital Land Price Model established, adding the construction of significant infrastructure projects in several years in Wuhan, for example, the construction of orbital transportation and the Wuhan Train station, as well as "the Land use plan of Wuhan city (from 2006 to 2020)" and " the Overall city plan of Wuhan City (from 2006 to 2020)", this article forecast the fastest growing region of housing price in several years.This paper includes six chapters in all. In the first chapter, it mainly introduces the background, the goal, the significance, the content and the technical route of the research; The second chapter is the basic theory of spatial variation of housing price. It mainly elaborates the basic theory related to land value spatial structure; The third chapter introduces the general summary of Wuhan; The fourth chapter analyzes emphatically the time variation characteristic of housing price in Wuhan city. The fifth chapter mainly analyzes the the spatial distribution characteristics of housing price in Wuhan city; The sixth chapter is the conclusion and the forecast of study.