Research On The Early Warning Of Urban Land Utilization In Tianjin

Land resource is an essential basis for human beings'living and social development. With the increasing of economy and city construction, the short of urban land resource and unreasonable land utilization seriously constrain the development of social economy and city. Rational distribution and sustainable utilization of limited land resource is becoming a significant problem in scientific field. Based on the pre-warning of land utilization, ensuring land management compatible with the social and economic development, guiding the industrial special layout reasonably and promoting city and regional economic development has been a primary task for land management departments to implement land policy and macroeconomic control. Although the research in national and regional land-use was comparatively concentrated, and the study was relatively homogeneous, so it is very urgent to do some researches on the urban land utilization under the new situation.Tianjin is the economic center around Bohai sea and the largest open cities in north China. Its area is only 11 917 km2, and urban land resource has become an important factor restricting urban development. However, as a result of low land productivity and inadequate land utilization, we can see the waste of land resources and the shortage of land resource at the same time. Based on the analysis of land utilization in the urban economic and social development stage, it is necessary to do some research on the assessment and pre-warning land utilization to maximize the effectiveness of land utilization.This paper first analyzes the land utilization situation and explains the evolution process of spatial structure of land utilization in Tianjin. After determining the factors affecting land utilization, the land utilization trend is predicted through multiple regression and gray prediction method. Then, the total urban land alert goal is fixed, while the index is selected in accordance with the principles and the index system is constructed based on the correlation analysis and causal analysis of the indicators. The weights of indicators, sub-items index and comprehensive index is determined by AHP method. Finally, the application of threeσmethod divides early warning interval, forming an overall framework of the early warning system of urban land utilization to build land-use warning signal system.The purpose of the pre-warning of urban land utilization is to judge the land utilization development trend, and remove or mitigate its negative effects through the government's macro-control, so that urban land utilization and the entire national economy can maintain sound development. Therefore, this study provides a basis for the formulation of Government policies and land management.