The Research Of Path Dependence In Technological Change

A process of economic allocation is called path dependence when the sequence of these allocations depends not only on fundamental, a priori determinants, such as technology, factor endowments, preferences, and institutions, but also on accidental historical events. The path dependence in technological changes result in multiple potential equilibria, and which one is selected depends on the specific historic events of the economic allocation process.Path dependence allocation process is determined over time rather than at a single moment. There are two premises for path dependence: first, the form or graphical structure of the explicit or often "virtual" networks that characterize the interdependency of agents' choices and thus the structure of positive feedbacks , and second, the specific characteristics of technology and technological change, which in various ways affect the relative attractiveness of different potential equilibria and the permanence of "lock-in" to a specific path of allocation.The reasons why technological path dependence occurs relies on the following factors: initial state of the technological market, the increasing return, accidental historical events, positive network externalities, the cost of conversion, bounded rationality, cognitive ability , and learning effects etc.According to characteristic of the technological products, technological path dependence can be influenced by two factors: network externalities and learning effects. The former works through the network effects market, while the latter mainly shows the impacts in a complex products and systems (CoPS) market. This article has utilized two mathematic models to analyze the two kinds of path dependence above.At the end of this article, I attempt to offer some ideas to lock out these technological path dependence: first, improve participants' cognitive ability; second, better the external condition; third, change the preferences and expectations of the agents by offering benefits; and fourth, introduce the external shock.