Study On Economic Evaluation Method Of Existing Railways Speed-up

The speed of our country's existing railways has accelerated five times covering a wide area. This year railways will implement the sixth speed increase in April 18^th. But the economic evaluation applied to the speed-accelerating project has some imperfections. It is indispensable to make further consideration.On the basis of this purpose, the paper mainly analyses improved and perfected aspects in accordance with the acceleration's special characteristics when the appraisal way applied to the speed-accelerating project. The paper beginning with traffic forecast, puts forward appropriate forecasting methods for normal traffic, diverted traffic and generated traffic, and analyses the linear and non-linear adjustment for forecast result, which can improve the forecast quality; studies detailed into the particularity of economic evaluation for the speed increase project, consisting of the peculiarity of the speed-accelerating project, the employment of five types date, the application of the "With and Without methods", the intension of the cost and benefit, how to fill in report forms and so on; applied the analytical hierarchy process, fuzzy decision-making method, grey theory decision-making and distance-distinguishing method to the comprehensive evaluation, and proves reasonable character through calculating cases.Based on the integrated system of economic evaluation for existing railways speed-accelerating project, the paper applies this system to the Jiao-ji speed-accelerating project which aims to prove practical character. With this example's checking computation, the paper analyses Excel's five pragmatic functions used in economic evaluation all-sidedly.To sum up, the paper inquires into the economic evaluation system of existing railway speed increase project, which is valuable for evaluating-maker to make strategies about speed-accelerating project.