Tourism Competitiveness Research On Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration

With the pace of industrialization and urbanization speeding up, urban agglomeration has become an important form of organization in the regional economic and social development of our country. And Tourism, an industry with high dependence and regional opening property, has taken urban agglomeration as an important spatial carrier.In view of the present insufficiency, the paper attempts to establish an index system and dynamic simulation model to rich the research methods and analysis thinking of tourism competitiveness research from the point of the whole urban agglomeration and its internal monomer city. Then the paper takes the Shandong peninsula urban agglomeration as the research target and analyzes the tendency of tourism competitiveness of this region.The research methods of this paper mainly focus on Analytic Hierarchy Process, Regression Analysis Method, Cluster Analysis Method and System Dynamics, etc. The main achievements and conclusions are as follows:(1)Taking urban agglomeration as an entire regional unit, the paper establishes the appraisal index system of tourism competitiveness from 4 aspects, the drive force of tourism, the tourism development level, the effects of tourism and the tourism economic relationship, concretely including 15 second grade index and 60 third grade index; in view of the internal monomer city, considering the difference of their contribution to the tourism development of the whole region, the paper increases another aspect to evaluate the contribution of different cites and reflect the difference between tourism competitiveness research on an isolated city and on that within an urban agglomeration, which specifically includes 2 third grade index.(2)On the basis of the establishment of tourism competitiveness appraisal index system, the paper determines the weight of each index by utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process; then according to the similarity in population and land scale as well as the disparity in tourism development level, the paper separately chooses Hangzhou and the Pearl River Delta as the comparative datum by means of Cluster Analysis Method, to quantify the appraisal index and making further analysis; at last, combining the evaluating methods and SD method, the author structures the dynamic model from the point of the entire urban agglomeration and its internal monomer city to forecast the developing trend of tourism competitiveness in this area.(3)By the year of 2020, tourism competitiveness of the whole Shandong peninsula urban agglomeration and its single cities both basically approach the level of their respectively comparative datum at that time. Among the first grade index, the competitiveness of tourism development level is comparatively high, while that of the tourism drive force and regional tourism contribution of cities belonging to different ranks relatively low, and that of tourism effects and economic relationship are between those above two parties.(4)From the view of the changing tendency, the tourism competitiveness of the monomer city will maintain an approximately steady developing trend in the following 15 years, and the disparity of competitiveness among different cities are comparatively obvious. By the end of the simulation period, the rank of these 8 cities in Shandong peninsula is as follows: Qingdao, Jinan, Yantai, Rizhao, Weihai, Dongying, Zibo, Weifang. As far as the entire urban agglomeration is concerned, the tourism competitiveness presents a smooth straight line or an approximate index growth tendency, and the promotion scope is higher than that of the monomer city in this area, which demonstrates that tourism integration and regional conformity are import measures to promote the tourism competitiveness of Shandong peninsula urban agglomeration.