Study On Effective Factors Of City Residential Demand In China

The development of residential market are both the controversial problem in the society and the key point about the national economy and the people's livelihood which makes the study on effective factors of city residential demand in China much more significant.The effective factors of residential demand are various and complicated. Based on the Chinese cities, the study aims at effective residential demand which including the consumption demand and investment demand from the macro-economics and meso-economics views. The effective factors of city residential demand include the population factor, economic factor, different region and city factor, capital factor and policy factor, which consist the whole theoretical framework. The theoretical framework is the foundation of empirical analysis as follows.Through the multi-regression analysis based on the panel data of 31 city samples in China, the city residential demand appears obvious differences between regions and cities. The primary effective factors are the whole and per capital economic development level, the GDP ratio of the tertiary industry to total, total amount of foreign capital actually utilized and total volume of tourist transportation. The residential demand also changed as the time goes by. Through the time series analysis of Xiamen city based on the data from Jan.2002 to Sep.2006, the primary effective factors are the autoregression factor, seasonal autoregression factor, per capita disposal income, the number of foreign tourists, total amount of foreign capital actually utilized and the ratio of residential sales revenue of the buyer from the Xiamen city to out of the Xiemen City. The macroeconomic regulation and control policy didn't appear consistent influence in Xiamen and the prediction of the residential demand of Xiamen shows that: the residential demand will keep on increasing.This paper has three characters as follows: (1) Built up the integrated theoretical study framework from all kinds of effective factors; (2) Based on the empirical analysis from landscape orientation and time series orientation, found that besides the economic factors, the convergence ability of a city is a very important influence factor; (3) Discovered the characters of residential market in Ximen and predict the residential demand based on time series model.Through the objective study, this paper supports the plan of the government, which is to build economic region in the west of Taiwan Straits and improve the convergence ability of the cities around the bay.