Study On The Quantity Disequilibrium Of Residential Market Effective Supply And Demand In Chengdu City

Residential problem is not only an economic and social issue, but also a political issue. Premier Wen Jiabao in the government work report proposed "must grasp to establish the housing guarantees system". At present the Chengdu housing demand is exuberant, and the lack of price elasticity of demand for residential. The demand adjustments can not purely through the price, but primarily through quantity adjustments to ease the contradiction of supply and demand. Hence the general equilibrium theory is ineffectual, but disequilibrium theory can provide theoretical support for residential supply and demand adjustment. This article plans to use the disequilibrium theory to analysis the Chengdu housing market, with a view to the developer and residential consumers provide analytical tools, simultaneously provides the reference for the government policy making. Through study the Chengdu residential market effective supply and demand quantity disequilibrium, some conclusions are as follows:(1)Affects the Chengdu housing demand and the supply factor are very many, the gray correlation analysis result showed that housing price, is key factor of affecting demand, housing price, the housing investment is key factor of affecting supply.(2)Disequilibrium model results showed, residential effective demand and sales prices was a positive correlation, but the housing effective demand lacks the price elasticity; residential effective demand and controlled income of each urban resident was a positive correlation, the increasing of controlled income of each urban resident will lead to effective demand substantial increase; the residential effective supply and sales price was a positive correlation, the residential effective supply and investment was a positive correlation, but the of residential effective supply lacks prices and investment elasticity.(3) The Chengdu housing effective supply and demand presents the obvious non-balanced development condition. Before 1997, the housing effective supplies are bigger than the effective demand; in 1997 later the housing market basically is in the stage that effective demand is bigger than the effective supplies, so at present Chengdu housing effective demand basically is at the demand exuberant stage.(4) Chengdu housing market is being unceasingly perfect and is mature, but recent years the value of disequilibrium degree is smaller than over the past few years and its value is a positive number, explained these year Chengdu housing market produce is in falls short of demand the stage. According to the predicted results of the non-equilibrium value, Chengdu next three years' non-equilibrium value will be still small, showed future period of time the housing choices for consume is not still many, the phenomenon of "short supply" will continue to intensify. If there is no policy control, the Chengdu residential prices will rise further, thereby affecting the housing market's healthy and stable development.(5) Because the housing effective demand and supply lack the price elasticity, therefore it cannot depend upon the price to regulate. This article proposed the regulation from the price and the quantity two aspects, in which quantity regulation is key, including guiding residents to establish a correct concept of housing consumption, improve public housing security system, and increase the effective supply of public housing to increase in low-cost, small and medium-TYPE Ordinary housing supply; vigorously develop the second-hand housing and rental market.