Research On Land Use Change In Turpan City

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is the most obvious aspect of global change. The regional research about Land use change and its driving forces is an important part of global LUCC research, which can greatly help us to understand the essential of land use change and forecast the trend. With the special climate and geographical location of its economic importance, Turpan city has its special law in land use dynamic evolution. Analysis of driving forces of Land use changes can deepen the understanding of human activities in the region changes in the role of effect and mechanisms and reduce the forecast uncertainty.Based on the land-use change data and related information, using the correlative statistic software and mathematic analytical methods, this paper analyzes the change of land use in Turpan city from year 1996 to 2005 qualitatively and quantitatively and draw a general knowledge of the land use change condition in Turpan city. Have carried out qualitative analysis on the natural and human driving forces and quantitative analysis with gray correlation degree model on the human driving forces of land use change, the drive mechanism on land use change in Turpan city was revealed. On the basis of this, with grey model GM (1.1), we forecasted the future square of arable land, construction land and unused land, which can provide basis for decision making of land use. Finally, to take the characteristic and the problems with land use in Turpan city into consideration, countermeasures and advises were brought forward, aiming at the sustainable land use.Through analysis, we can draw the following conclusions:(1) Among 1996-2005, the land use change in Turpan city occurred on a larger number, with arable land and unused land in decreasing, garden, woodland and construction land in the growing and grassland remaining the same.(2) Around all the classifications of land, woodland made the highest rate of change by increasing to an annual 8.63 percent, followed by arable land, changing in the rate of -1.61 percent.(3) Among 1996-2005, the level of comprehensive utilization of land in Turpan city remains the same.(4) In Turpan city, land use change was impacted not only by natural factors but also by human factors that is the more important part in the short term. Natural factors in climate, hydrological and geological conditions are of the larger land-use constraints and human factors in population, urbanization and industrialization, economic development, technological level, and so on, have different degrees impact on land use.(5) When forecast the future square of arable land, construction land and unused land, the grey model GM (1.1) reached a very high precision. The present trend of land use being maintained, to 2015, arable land will be reduced to 14879.69 hectares, unused land would be reduced to 1069301.50 hectares, while construction land will increase to 14295.39 hectares.