Research On End-use Energy Forecasting Model And Strategy Of Sustainable Development In Beijing

End-use energy refers to the energy which consumed as raw materials,fuel and power, and it will not re-use as a source of energy,whose expense process reflects the termination of energy consumption.The research about end-use energy consumption can better reflect the status of a regional energy consumption and its problems.The large energy consumption scale and unreasonable final energy use structure in Beijing call for research on end-use energy trends and how to achieve energy sustainable development.Based on the full data of energy consumption,the energy expense characteristics and its problems are analyzed.Subsequently,the optimal forecasting model based on Markov chain is applied to predict the final energy structure of Beijing by taking into account a suitable method that can effectively calculate transfer probability matrix.Empirical tests reveal that,if policy and economic conditions remain unchanged,the share of high-quality energy consumption will gradually increase and reach about 80 percent in the equilibrium state,and Beijing end-use energy demand will reach 6270 to 6750 10000 tons of SCE in 2010.Finally, constructive suggestions that aim at controlling the scale of end-use energy consumption, futher optimizing the structure of end-use energy consumption and achieving energy sustainable development in Beijing are proposed.