Study On The Dynamic Safety Evaluation Model In Coalmine And Its Application

Coal mining production is an extremely complex multi-factor, multi-variable, multi-level dynamic process and systems engineering. Aimed at the disast risk during the coal mining, studies on safety evaluation are carried out to implement the basic principles "safety and prevention first" and the basic premise of the production in coal mines.Based on the National Key Technology R&D Program "the Research of key technologies on coal mine gas, fire prevention and controlling of the roof major disasters", the safety evaluation for coalmines has been studied in this thesis. By analyzing the evaluation technology at home and abroad, the model of dynamic safety evaluation is proposed and set up.The current methods of safety evaluation in coal mine are analyzed in the thesis. And it is found that they could not reflect the dynamic characteristics of coal production. The state of the whole mining system is changed with the working face advance or tunnel boring, as well as drag, rock pressure, gas concentration. Most of the traditional methods for safety valuation are carried out once a year. So they can not reflect the security situation in coal mines timely. The dynamical overall safety valuation in coalmines is definded in the thesis by analying the problem of traditional methods for safety valuation. Based on the accidental theory and other safety theories, the whole mine is divided into 10 units. The evaluation indexes including dynamic ones in every unit are defined. The weight of the fact is variable, and it includes the attributive weight and the rank weight. They are both calculated by the analytic hierarchy process, then combinated to one for the evaluation. The membership grade is calculated by the normal membership function, while the first rank and the last rank are modified to match the fact. The fuzzy math is used to get the result of the evaluation. In the analysis process, degree of confidence is used to decide the band of the evaluation object.In order to facilitate the field application, the framework of the dynamic evaluation for coal mine is built in the thesis. By collecting the data of the mines, the working faces are evaluated by the method proposed in the thesis.