| Accompanied with the larger GDP contributed by new energy industry, as well as the environment pressure and political pressure from global warming, solar PV installation and wind power installation in China now are experiencing rapidly increase. This rapid increase of new energy industry also brings new opportunities for storage battery, and China's new energy storage battery industry faces a new booming.However, the birth of an emerging industry is always with disagreement on technical trends, lack of technical standard, and chaos of market competency. In the process of formation in this industry, all technicians, investors, management, customers and policy makers demand better understandings of the tech-economic problems, as a basis of decision-making.This paper analyzed China's new energy storage battery industry in a tech-economic framework, including technique route selection, industry business environment analysis, and emerging market valuation. The analysis mainly based on primary data of a business research, in which more than 70 managers and experts were interviewed, from battery manufactures, suppliers, distributers, key buyers, industry associations, as well as the government, etc.According to the research and analysis, here are several main conclusions about understanding this industry's status quo and trends.(1) Market prospects are brightAccording to the estimates, the Solar PV installation and wind power installation in China will increase from 45 MW and 6,204 MW in year 2008 to 2,281.6 MW and 24,449 MW in 2015, with high CAGR of 75.2% and 21.6%. Till 2015, the cumulative installation of PV and wind power in China would be 9,081 MW (within which 22.6% is off-grid) and 143,865 MW (0.36% is off-grid).For the market size, the new energy storage battery market in China in 2015 would come to RMB 15.58 billion, among that the market value of new projects would be RMB 9.76 billion, and of replacement demands would be RMB 5.82 billion. Suppose the smart grid techniques become mature and other collocation facilities got ready, the storage battery demands of on-grid PV/wind power would increase sharply. In that case, the market value of new energy storage battery in china by 2015 could be up to RMB 96 billion.(2) The technological trajectoryIn short term, lead-acid gel battery is the popular technical direction, and in long run, the technological trajectory would transfer to mass volume storage batteries.Under the current technologies of VRLA (valve-regulated lead-acid) battery, gel lead-acid, Ni-H, Ni-Cd, Li-ion, and sodium-sulphur battery, the VRLA still play a leading role because of the mature tech and cheap price, but the position of rapid increase will be replaced soon by gel lead-acid. By 2015, the market share of gel lead-acid battery would increase from 6% in 2008 up to about 16%. Other types of batteries cannot threaten the leading position of lead-acid battery in short run.However, China's new energy generators will generally be connected to the grid. In that case, the massive volume battery techs as sodium-sulphur, vanadium redox, Li-ion phosphate, and super capacitor would get the develop priorities.(3) A competitive market, purchasers and policy makers have great impactAll the manufactures in new energy storage battery market are new entrants, most of which are the leading firms in lead-acid battery industry. None of them have taken an obvious leading market share; the whole market is still decentralized. Most producers adapt direct sales for selling products, and will adapt distribution generally. Now the main clients consist of new energy equipments producers, power system integrators, power generation group, and government public projects. Since the strong bargaining power of purchase side and the great impact from policy makers in the industry, the new entrants should focus on regional marketing and cooperation.The paper filled the research blank of new energy storage battery industry, and help the market players make decisions. It also made efforts on updating industry tech-economic methodology. |
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