A Research Into The Early-warning Mechanism Of Enterprise Crisis Based On Scenarios Analysis

At present, company's external environment is much more complex than before, and much more companies in China have entered a crisis-prone era. So, how to cope with the uncertainty of future development and to avoid the risk is a big challenge that enterprises must use flexible thinking to con-trol the crisis weak signal in development fully.Early-warning mechanism of enterprise crisis is a hot topic in the field of modern business management, and it is also a new topic in the field of crisis management application. It can help decision-makers to analysis en-terprise development in time, eliminate the crisis in the bud, and help com-panies adapt to changing market conditions quickly, maintaining the compe-titiveness. But now, many more documents that refer to researching the cri-sis in a static environment don't take new industries and some other indus-tries which go through serious crisis into account. There are little history dates in those industries, and in other words, those dates is worthless.To make up for lack of existing theory, this paper rebuilds a ear-ly-warning mechanism of enterprise crisis from a new angle by introducing scenario analysis and drawing on ideas of systems science. So, in the pro-duction management process enterprises will find weak signal of early crisis to make a rapid warning for managers. The goal of doing this is to enhance enterprises'competitiveness.The thesis is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduc-tion including the purpose and significance of choosing paper topics, do-mestic and overseas researching status, contents and methods, and innova-tion of research papers.The second and the third chapter is a literature overview. The paper summarizes and draws lessons from the relative literature about scenario analysis and crisis early-warning theories. The fourth chapter is the core of the paper which rebuilds the early-warning mechanism of enterprise crisis based on scenarios analysis and discusses the research framework the and analysis steps in detail in order to provide a new approach to analyzing and solving crisis of future uncertain environment for enterprises. The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis that practices the research method of the fourth chapter. The sixth chapter is the conclusion and outlook which puts forward some advices of research in the future.