Comprehensive Evaluation Of Land Resources Security And Pre-Warning Study On Baoji City

Land as the carrier of national economy development, its security concerns of food security, social security and ecological security. Researching on regional land resources security, not only conducive to the implementation of the national land conservation policies, but also provide real information for regional eco-friendly land use patterns.Base on extensive reading literature of land resources security and pre-warning at home and abroad, this paper qualitative and quantitative study of land resources security, by dint of the model of the indicator system, factor analysis, ecological footprint and system analysis, from land comprehensive carrying capacity (LCCC) and land ecological footprint in two aspects, aiming to understand the degree of land security and development trends.Meanwhile,the paper made a study of land resources security foretelling ,and some measures ware put forward according to the present utilization of land resources in Baoji city. The research result and innovative achievement of this paper as follows:(1)From 1997 to 2007, the area of cultivated-land has been in reducing situation, a net decrease of 44279hm2, and there has been different rate of cultivated-land annual decline between different times. The rate of cultivated-land annual decline from 2002 to 2007 is 1.34 times of 1997 to 2002, so the cultivated-land security situation in a tough time. Rather, land use composite index (Lj) of Baoji city in 2007 is 219.8, the land exploration was not enough, is about half of the limit.(2)In this paper, the index system of LCCC was established based on pressure class and bearing pressure class, had measured and calculated the state of LUCC of Baoji city in 2000,2002,2005 and 2007 by using factor analysis, obtain results: in 2000, land resources of Baoji city in the state of weak security, indicate that the scale and intensity of human activities on land within the compass of land resources to carry; In 2002,2005 and 2007, land resources of Baoji city in the state of unsafe, indicate that the scale and intensity of human activities on land had beyond the compass of land resources to carry, so land resources in the state of overload.(3) Method of ecological footprint have been applied to evaluate the state of land resources security in Baoji, obtain results: land resources ecological footprint demand per capita ware on the rise, ecological footprint supply per capita showed a downward tendency, and land resources security in the state of unsafe; In 2007, the ecological footprint deficit per capita is 0.109667hm2, indicate that consumer demand is much greater than the regenerative capacity of natural systems in Baoji; The predicted result shows that the pressure index of land resources security first decreased and then increased: the state of land resources is unsafe in 2010, is criticality safety in 2020.(4)The paper have made a measurement of early-warning values of land resources security by using the model of cultivated-land gross dynamic equilibrium, and using the goal early warning coefficient to determine the early warning degree. To be specific, the early warning degree of cultivated-land security of Baoji city in middle alarm state in1998,2001,2002,2004,2007,2008; The early warning degree of cultivated-land security of Baoji city in red alarm state in 1999,2000,2005;in 2008 is in the state of heavy alarm.