| According to nearly one hundred years of meteorological data recorded, the global climate has experienced an unprecedented rapid change. The world's population is growing rapidly, leading to a large number of fossil resources are over-development and use of. All of this result in a great deal of pollutants' emission to the environment, global warming, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, addition of Atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases' concentration, frequent occurrence of extreme weather, and many other climatic deterioration. Fluctuations in the economy, food crisis, political instability, deteriorating living conditions which were caused by climate change rose widespread fears and concerns, grain production and trade under climate change context is one of the concerns. The instability of food security will spread to trade, economic, political, etc, which will be a vicious cycle of chain. It's extremely important to deal with this situation, which is the content of this research.This dissertation includes six chapters. The first and second chapters introduce the current research status, climate changes, the development of grain production and trade situation. The third and the forth chapter are the core sections of this paper. By using the panel data analysis methods, and using Eviews software to analyze the data of the average global temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the three major global crop cultivation, global grain production, national production, and three crop yields, global grain trade statistics from 1992 to 2007, then by analysis of the quantitative relationship between climate change and grain production, the grain trade, these two chapters obtain the corresponding model. in the basic of the modeling analysis of the results obtained from the chapter three and four, the fifth chapter gives some targeted measures. Chapter six is the conclusion, summed up the full paper.Through the establishment of global climate change-grain production model, the three crops to climate-yield model, country climate-grain production model, climate change-trade model, and analysis the quantitative relationship between climate, grain production and grain trade, the research got the forecasts of grain production and trade development in the future. According to the model analysis, it shows that global grain production and trade will present growth trend. However, changes rate is changing. Grain production growth rate will slow down gradually. But population growth, energy consumption rate of food consumption is rising. The major grain production country, such as U.S., China, India, will be affected by climate change factors, and then the climate changes will affect the composition of grain trade. Western Europe, North America's trade share will decline. But relatively, the trade share of China, Russia, and other countries will increase.The food crisis and trade structure changes caused by the imbalance between grain supply and demand will influent all the countries of the world greatly. So it is very necessary to take appropriate measures to cope with the adverse effects in order to ensure global food security and stabilize of grain trade. |
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