Evaluation Of Coal Mine Production Logistics System Based On Evidence Theory And Neural Network

Coal is a main energy source of china. According to statistics, the production and consumption of China's coal energy separately accounted for 76.6% and 69.5% in primary energy production and consumption in 2007. Therefore, the extensive development and use of coal energy have made a very significant contribution in promoting national economic construction, accelerating social progress and improving people's living standards. In recent years, coal logistics has occupied a very important position in China's circulation area, and according to statistics of China's coal transport alone accounted for around 40% in the Annual cargo volume by rail and sea of total national. Coal mine production logistics as the main form of coal logistics is playing a key role in increasing the coal production as well as reducing the costs. Therefore, the transformation and optimization of coal production logistics systems appear to be very necessary, and it has a very important social significance and practical, significance. However,in order to optimize and (?) form the coal production logistics system, it must be based on the scientific and rational evaluation of the coal production logistics system.In the drawing on the work of previous studies, this paper mainly did the following work:1. Through the research in the coal mining enterprises, data analysis, as well as a comprehensive analysis of related reference literature of domestic and foreign, analyzed the safety, efficiency and reliability of coal mine production logistics system comprehensive using the theories of systems engineering, coal mine safety engineering, logistics engineering, etc., and analyzed the affecting factors of safety, efficiency and reliability of coal mine production logistics systems.2. On the basis of the in-depth analysis of coal mine production logistics system and in accordance with the principles of the system evaluation, established the evaluation indicators system of coal mine production logistics system. And in this system, there are 5 fist-level indicators and 17 second-level indicators.3. Through the study on BP neural network, the data synthesis methods of D-S evidence theory that usually implicated in the field of system evaluation, found that the output of a single BP neural network is instable, and sometimes even can influence the of determination evaluation results; and the data synthesis methods of D-S evidence theory can weaken this kind of instability, but its basic probability assignment is difficult to distribution. Therefore, this paper established evaluation model for coal mine production logistics system combining BP neural network and D-S evidence theory.4. Finally, using the evaluation model did an empirical analysis, and the result shows that the model is feasible and effective in the evaluation of coal mine production logistics system.At last discussed combined the evaluation results, and gave out the proposed countermeasures and suggestions to the improve and optimization of coal mine production logistics system.At present, the study of china's coal mine production logistics system research is still very weak, and the level of coal mine production logistics system is different, so the research on evaluation technology of coal mine logistics system is very important. This study of this paper has a certain reference value to the optimization and improvement of coal mine production logistics system.