| With the real estate bubble burst by US Supreme Mortgage Crisis in 2008, financial chain rupture include that the risk released and sympathetic vibration tempestuously and concentrativly, meanwhile it lead to the real economy recession. Reviewing the credit crisis in the history, we find that real estate has played an important role in many times, so the real estate industry affects the pulse of the economic development. Hilbers, Lei & Zacho (2001) studied the financial crisis over, found that both developing and developed countries, real estate industry of the changes are the economic and financial shows significant influence. Because our country of capital of the real estate industry from commercial bank loans most of the real estate industry, so to change has a direct impact on the management of commercial Banks. Because the capital of real estate industry mostly comes from the commercial bank in our country, the change of it directly includes the management of commercial banks.At present, China's real estate market is facing policy repressing. From the rational finance, as the biggest credit of the real state, if the commercial bank continue to expand the credit scales and ignore the risk, once the bad debt risk and moral hazard happened at the same time, it will lead to financial crises and endanger the state economy. So identifying and devaluing the estate credit risk and establishing the corresponding risk hedge mechanism is imminent.In this paper, we studied the background first, and then we research the reasons which caused the real estate credit risk and Transmission mechanism of the real estate credit risk. Based on the summarization above, we establish a quantitative model to identify the real estate credit risk. The paper identify the real estate credit risk from three aspect:real estate enterprises, commercial Banks and the external environment; In the risk assessment stage, The paper selects 18 financial indicators of 38 listed real estate companies to establish the evaluation index system, and uses the same set of data to estimate discriminated analysis model and Logit regression model. Empirical studies have shown that discriminated analysis model and Logit regression model predicted results are better overall. In addition, there are asymmetric for the forecast of two models, because the models make a high predictive accuracy for credit non-default group, while a low predictive accuracy for credit default group. On the one hand, it is a true reflection of reality, in general, very few good companies make false account and exaggerated profits, while poorly managed enterprises have greater moral hazard.On the other hand, only do quantitative analysis is not enough to distinguish credit default businesses, qualitative analysis should be combined with quantitative analysis to make multidimensional analysis, or small errors can also cause great damage.In order to prevent the real estate credit risk, the paper gives corresponding credit risk management measures, including expanding real estate financing, promoting the construct the risk management technology platform of real estate credit, separating of real estate development loans and personal housing, establishing risk warning mechanism, extracting enough reserve of real estate credit risk. |
