Complex System Analysis, The Fcm-based City Gas Supply And Demand Market

With China's rapid growth in consumption of natural gas, its supply and demand gap has become increasingly evident, and the city's supply and demand imbalance in the natural gas market has also become increasingly prominen. So to establish a research method and theoretical guidance system of the complex system of natural gas supply and demand market has important practical significance.As Fuzzy Cognitive Maps has visual knowledge representation, fast numerical reasoning ability, and the close relationships among neural networks, graph theory and fuzzy logic, it now has had an extremely wide range of applications. This paper will carry out the analysis of city gas's supply market complex systems based on this method.Firstly, an analytical model to determine the objective function, decision variables and constraints will be set up; Secondly, based on Beijing natural gas supply market and other relevant data, the sensitivity analysis of all decision variables in the complex systems will be done in order to identify the most vulnerable variables; Thirdly, Fuzzy Cognitive Map will be used to analysis the complex systems of Beijing natural gas supply and demand market, and calculate the adjacency matrix and figure out final models; Finally, the changes of the most vulnerable variable in the final models will be studied and then some usful countermeasures and suggestions of how to achieving the model's objective function and maintaining balance of complex systems will be summarized.This paper will take the city gas supply and demand market for example; try to find out the disturbance equilibrium factors and all the various possible changes of gas market. The paper aims at improving the stability of the natural gas market, counterpoising the natural gas market imbalance between supply and demand, and providing reference methods about analysing natural gas complex systems.