Treasury Bond Issue Risk Research

As the best reliable borrow-and-return national credit conduct, public debt determines itself as a special debit and credit conduct within the fixed financial area. The debtor of public debt should make the venture management and control the size of public debt within proper range. The article as following is trying to make the all-round analysis and research in the point of size risk in public debt issue, in order to form a clear understanding of the present situation of public debt's size and make the unitary hold and control in the macro-lay.On the basis of qualitative analysis combining correlative academic knowledge, the dissertation makes the deep analysis on the size risk of public debt issue by using a great deal of numerical and statistical methods; discusses the importance of public debt issue through Regression Analysis between the public debt issue and economic running; experiments a totally new analysis in the treasury deposit balance by the forecasting model of Time Series; analyses and forecasts the future size of our public debt by setting up the model of Ecnometics; estimates the present size risk by Cluster Analysis and factor analysis; build an alarming system of public debt issue finally by using the Analysis of Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The whole dissertation makes the size risk of public debt issue as a whole to study all the time and gets the final conclusion on the basis of a series of quantitative analysis, which the size of our public debt issue is still within the safe range and does not exist any bigger risk in the shorter period. Above this analysis, the dissertation also brings forward some concrete countermeasure to be consulted against size risk.