Dynamic Game In Applied Research, Emergency Management

Public emergency management research has mainly focused on the fields of emergency management system construction, plan management, education/training, resource location and allocation, resource distribution, evacuation. Due to the uncertainty of emergency's evolving process, the whole emergency management is a dynamic gaming process.PERT with dynamic game theory described the dynamic and game characteristics of the emergency management. It should be a management technology which consisting of some decision-making models and methods. But it was still a conception model. This dissertation studied three problems which came from practice and were under the framework of PERT with dynamic game theory.The first problem was the dynamic gaming process of emergency management under incomplete information. Emergency plan would be adjusted in real-time based on the situation of emergency, therefore the dynamic game theory under incomplete information should be a great tool to make emergency plans dynamically. By analyzing the generally gaming relationships among management subjects and objects, and characteristics and factors of emergency games, we would know the dynamic gaming process of emergency management under incomplete information.The second problem analyzed plan selection under incomplete information. In practice, emergency plan would be adjusted during emergency response because of the gap between emergency and estimation. This problem was how to select an efficient and well adjusted plan, under the circumstances of incomplete information, restricted resource and time. The response effect of emergency plan could be evaluated by time, resource and emergency damage. The adjusting efficiency could be estimated by adjusting time, resource and gap to the best plan. This paper proposed respectively two models of the maximal expected effect and adjusting efficiency and conservative decision principle.The third problem was how to use network to describe emergency plan. It was the base of PERT with dynamic game and the approach to response cooperation. The elements of response cooperation were analyzed and planning step was provided under the theory of network plan in project management. This paper added the Resource Satisfaction Rate to each activity in network and employed the Critical Path Method with it.