A Study On The Influencing Factors And Future Trend Of Labor Supply In China Under The Background Of Aging

The supply of labor not only have a significant impact on the labor force and unemployment in the region, but also to a large extent on the role of regional economic development and social stability. Population aging is an important background of the current development of China’s population, which also makes the supply of labor and structural characteristics showing a stage. Population aging showed changes in population age structure, through influence population size,population structure and labor participation rates in order to further the role of the labor supply situation. At the same time, under the current background of population aging, our population and labor supply are facing many problems, so that the "universal two-children policy" policy has come out, which will have an important impact on China’s future labor supply.The main content of this paper is divided into three parts. First is to analyze in detail the labor supply and its influencing factors through the feature of the change of the scale and structure of historical data; Second is to decompose the influencing factors to the labor supply to determine the different periods of varied factors to the labor supply effect of; Third is to base on the universal two-children policy, using the elements of population prediction method and the software PADIS-INT as a tool, to assume the demographic parameters, especially the total fertility rate and fertility model hypothesis. Then we will combine with the labor participation rate parameter hypothesis and predict the future trends in the supply of labor force.The main conclusion of this paper are as follows:(1) Labor supply supported mainly by the total population growing. The influence of the working age population is an “inverted N” type trend. The reverse effect of labor force participation rate on labor supply is increasing.(2) The proportion of elderly will up to about 30% by 2050.We expect that in 2030-2035 the proportion of aged 45-64 years old labor force will be the first time exceeded the 25-44 year-old young labor force proportion. The internal structure of the supply of labor force aging trend will have become increasingly evident. Finally, we propose some suggestions including the family planning policy, retirement policy, human capital, industrial structure and other aspects of the proposal.