The Tendency And Influencing Factors Of Future Labor Force Supplies For Building Industry

The Building industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy. Besides, it is a labor intensive industry. During the recent20years, with China’s rapid development of urbanization and the expansion of city construction scale, the building industry experienced a rapid development, a large number of rural migrant labor force joined into the city construction and migrant workers have accounted for more than95%of the root workers in building industry. During recent10years, the increase speed of the working age population in China has slowed down, and the number of the working age population will also decrease in the near future. The number of transferable rural surplus is also decreasing. A phenomenon named "mingonghuang"("shortage of rural migrant workers") appears throughout the entire country, and is very severe in some regions. In last few years, the building industry also experienced difficulty in worker recruitment because of a labor force shortage. The shortage of labor is a huge challenge to the building industry, which is labor intensive and cannot transfer its producing area because of the instability of its producing area. This paper aims to research the future labor force supplying the building industry, analyze the macroscopic, medium and microcosmic factors that influence the future labor force s of the building industry, and present counter-measures and advices to keep the equilibrium of the labor force and to ensure the sustainable supply of labor for the building industry.This paper includes four parts and seven chapters.The first part is introduction and literature review, including chapters one and two. The introduction explains the research background and meaning, research contents, research thoughts, theoretical and logistic frame, research methods and technical route, the frame and structure of the paper, and the innovative points and shortages of the paper. The literature review systematically reviews the general theories about the labor force supply, need, transfer, and flow at home and abroad. The research findings present the research situation and factors influencing the labor force supply and need, the general relationship between the labor force and the rural labor force’s supply and need in China, along with factors the influence the professional stability, and addresses the need further research. The review presents a theoretical basis for the research.The second part, which is the third chapter, is the present situation and forecast of labor force supply and need of the building industry. This chapter applies Co-integration Theory and the Granger causality test method and analysis the co-integration and causality between the development of the building industry and the need of rural migrant workers in the condition of some relevant assumptions. Meanwhile, it sets up a vector error correction model (VECM) and tests the result. Based on this result, the paper analysis presents the current situation of the labor force supply and need in the building industry. It calculates the future needs of the labor force in the building industry according to the development of a macroscopic economy and the building industry. It addresses the estimated influence that the building industry’s technological advances make to the productivity to the labor of the building industry. The research considers that the need for the labor force in the building industry may increase steadily.The third part is the analysis of factors influencing the labor force supply and need in the building industry. It also includes chapters four, five and six. Chapter four addresses the influence that the developing tendency of a macroscopic labor force supply and need makes to the supply of the labor force in the building industry. This chapter analyses the changing tendency of China’s population and the working age population, calculates the scale of surplus of the rural work force, and analyses the influences that factor such as China’s population and the working age population, the scale of surplus of the rural work force, and the real work time supply of the rural migrant workers make to the supply of the labor force in the building industry. The research considers that the decrease in the total number of labor force causes the reduction of the labor force source, the structural change in the labor force supply results in the reduction of the main body labor force in the building industry. The delay in the main body’s organic regeneration, the regional change of the labor force supply, gives rise to the regional unbalance of the labor force supply in the building industry. The labor force’s industrial changes make the building industry face a labor force squeeze and possible crisis from other rising industries.The fifth chapter is the occupational stability of the present migrant workers in the building industry and influencing factors. This chapter applies an empirical analysis method. It introduces the basic states of the rural migrant workers in building industry, and studies their occupational career, occupation selecting inclination and its influencing factors. It measures the migrant workers’occupational mobility and stability with the rates of change in employment industries and employment cities. This chapter measures the migrant workers’stability in the building industry with the degree of stability in the building industry. It measures the migrant workers’future stability in the building industry with the inclination of staying in the building industry. Besides, analysis, this chapter reviews the relationships between factors of occupational stability.The sixth chapter is the supply tendency of a newly increased labor force for the building industry. This chapter studies migrant workers in other industries, the new generation of migrant workers, and young men of the city’s inclination to join into the building industry with empirical analysis methods.The forth part is the conclusion, countermeasures and advice, which is the seventh chapter. This chapter concludes the research results, and presents countermeasures and advice based on the results. The main research results are:(1) Contradiction between the labor force supply and need in the building industry has appeared.(2)The need for a labor force in building industry is still rising.(3) The supply of the labor force in the building industry is facing a severe situation.(4) The building industry’s characteristics of being "hard","dirty","tiring","dangerous" and "mobile" severely affects its attraction.(5) The future supply of the labor force for the building industry is influenced by many factors, which can be included into three levels as macroscopic, medium and microcosmic levels.According to the research results, this paper presents several countermeasures and advices:(1) Improve the producing and living conditions in the building industry;(2)Guarantee migrant workers’lawful rights and interests in the building industry;(3) Increase the wage level in the building industry;(4) Accelerate the building industry’s transconformation;(5) Cultivate industrial workers in the building industry.