Empirical Research, The Listed Company's Financial Crisis Early-warning Model

With drawing on gradually of global economic integration, enterprises will face more and more fiercer market competition, how can keep unbeaten in the fierce market competition, it is the prerequisite that each enterprise survives and develops. Though a lot of enterprises took a lot of remedies after failing, for example carry on recombination of debt, rearrangement of assets, auctioning. However, no matter which kinds of remedy was performed will all make the shareholder or creditor of enterprises suffer great losses. So, if can find and take the valid measure when enterprise's financial crisis situation has just presented, it can make a lot of enterprises avoid suffering greater losses, avoid getting into a difficult managing position. Enterprise financial affairs early warning system is set up to make investor and administrator of enterprise find enterprise signal that financial affairs worsen ahead of time, thus take the corresponding measures, which make enterprises keep unbeaten in the fierce market competition.Our country does not set up complete financial affairs early warning system yet, only demands some financial affairs disclosure of predicting message among the financial report in listed company, but the financial affairs predicting information may be just the simple extension of history and present financial trend of listed company, once the company manages in non- normal state, the financial affairs predicting information revealed may be unable to reflect the future trend accurately. In fact, the listed company is often inclined to reveal good news while revealing the information of predicting of the financial affairs, conceal bad news, which makes prediction " distortedly ". So, the limitation that the financial affairs prediction requires the setting-up of the early warning system of the financial affairs urgently.In fact, the financial crises of most enterprises are all from financial affairs normal to aggravation progressively, cause the financial crisis or going bankrupt finally. So, the financial crisis not only has omen but also can predict, the purpose of this text is to offer the basis to the financial administration of enterprise, through the analysis of the reason of financial crisis, setting up financial crisis prediction models of the listed company of our country.This text is divided into 6 chapters altogether, the main content includes: Chapter 1: Research background and theory survey.This chapter mainly tells research background of enterprise financial crisis early warning, domestic and international current situation of financial crisis research, as well as purpose and meaning of this text.Chapter 2: Early warning theory of enterprise's financial crisis.This chapter introduces enterprise's early warning theoretical foundation, basic key element and goal and function mainly. Chapter 3: Choose of sample ,index, research approach. and Real example analysis.This chapter introduces the real example and early warning index of this text chosen. As well,This chapter also includes basic statistics amount analysis, single variable model analysis andmodel analysis of many variables, model analysis of many variables including LMP model andLogistics model among them.Chapter 4: Case research of the early warning theory of the financial crisis.This chapter takes Furi limited company as an example and uses the early warning model,analysing the reason that this company financial unusual fluctuation appears.Chapter 5: Conclusion and enlightenment.This chapter sums up the conclusion of the article, putting forward my view on setting-up of theearly warning model of financial crisis of our country.