The Anchorage Traffic Risk Research

Durning this years, with the port construction scale and speed increasing in our country's coastal port area, marine traffic is becoming more and more crowded in navigable waters, at the same time the vessels in the voyage are orienting towards super size and specialization,the phenomenon that ships waiting for into the port or waiting for anchorage is becoming more and more common, these problems bring a lot of pressure to the navigation environment which become increasingly complex. The anchorage can not unlimited increase because it was restrictived by the waters planning and natural conditions, so the problems relate to anchorage security become important.Anchorage is an important part of port, because it affects the pot's operating and development,and it directly influence the safety and economic benefit of the port, so analysis and research anchorage navigation safety is very important. The unascertained measurement evaluation have been widely used in coal mine production safety, environmental quality assessment and other aspects,but it was less used in anchorage security research. Anchorage is a system that has many factors, many variables and multi-level, in this system in addition to natural conditions exist uncertain messages, VTS management services and the level of navigation aids facility outfit also with uncertainty.This paper apply the concept of unascertained information to the anchorage waters safety risk research,and set up the multi-level index system of anchorage waters safety evaluation through by analyzing the factors that affect anchorage waters navigation safety. Subsequently, the paper utilizes improved AHP to determine the weight of evalution endexes, and use unascertained mathematics knowledge makes the qualitative indexes via quantization process in the safety evaluation, this makes the weight more scientific and reasonable. Finally, this unascertained measure evaluation methods is used in lanshan port area anchorage expansion of rizhao,in order to analysis navigation safety risk of the anchorage waters.Applies the evaluating method of unasertained measure to the anchorage waters security research can improve the accuracy and reliability of the anchorage waters safety evaluation system, it has the important practical significance to the anchorage water safety evaluation.