Research On The Trade Friction Effect And Early Warning Mechanism Of Aquatic Products Based On Industry Safety

In recent years, China's aquaculture makes a rapid development, the aquatic products and export trade value keeps leaping quickly year by year. The export amount of aquatic production is 3.33 million tons and the export value is 13.83 billion U.S. dollars in 2010, both have been occupying the first place in the world for years. However, as a matter of the poor quality and safety, the low fishing standardization, the irrational export structure, and the ever increasing technological barriers setted by developed countries, represented by Japan,USA and EU, with the purpose of protecting domestic industry or other reasons, the export of aquatic products encountered more and more trade friction. In fact, according to released statistics of WTO/TBT-SPS Notification and Enquiry of China (TBT/SPS), the export of aquatic products are blocked for nearly 400 times in 2009, makes it one of the most serious product in China.In view of the above background and the existing problems, this article makes a study on the matter of aquatic trade friction. In order to dealing with trade friction within aquatic products field,the paper first makes an analysis on the economic effects of the trade friction, and then brings forward advice from the point of mechanism and strategy. The paper has certain theoretical and realistic significance. This article is divided into three parts; the main contents are summarized as follows:The first part, Chapter I and II make a study of the basic theory as well as some related research, including trade friction, industrial security and early warning mechanism. With the analysis of traditional trade protection theory, it describes the reason of trade friction. The paper identities such a viewpoint, that is: within an imperfect market, the pursuing of interests and protecting domestic industry are the inner root cause of trade friction. Trade friction can be defined as conflicts and disputes between cross-border industries, happened between countries in international trade, with the purpose of contesting international market share as a matter of imbalanced development of economy, and inconsistent with interests, etc.The second part includes the third and fourth chapter. First, the paper summarizes the present situation and the features of aquatic products trade in China, finds that some problems are still in exist. Such as the lasting high concentration of export markets,the imperfect product structure,as well as a poor quality and safety of aquatic products. Through an analysis of aquatic product trade friction situation, it finds that the maximum of trade friction happened to aquatic products come from the main export countries. Internal product structure problem and excessive industrial protection of import countries are both important reasons of trade friction on aquatic products. In the following, the paper analyzes the economic effects of trade friction by constructing partial equilibrium model and general equilibrium model. And find that trade friction affects commodity terms of trade of export country,trade interests distribution and employment by the way of increasing its cost and raising some standard, while protects the importing country's industry on the cost of sacrificing some domestic consumers'interest. It also finds that the elasticity of demand for aquatic products exerts some influence on the economic effects of trade friction to the exporting country, the more elastic the demand for aquatic products is, the more significant of the effect of trade friction is. Then, on the base of economic theory, it analyzes the effect of technical barriers and other kind of trade friction to the export trade by using of Gravity Model studies of other scholars and also charts analysis, announces that technical barriers results in reduction to exports value and decrease to the export volume. For the last part of empirical analysis, the paper analyzes aquatic products export trade friction with specific cases, which prove the blocked effects of fish trade frictions and chain effect of trade barriers in aquatic products export trade friction.The fifth chapter is the third part of this article. It proposes the necessity to establish the early warning mechanism of trade friction; the paper puts forward a framework of warning mechanism, including the leading of government, participation of enterprises, and coordination of industry associations. Finally, the early-warning index system is analyzed and illustrated; the paper makes statistics of the collected questionnaire data using the analytic hierarchy process.With the development of international trade, trade protectionism keeps going on. It's hard to avoid trade friction.The most important thing is how to reduce risk and loss, finally, it introduces China's countermeasures to trade friction. The government should strengthen macro management and control,regulate the export order and make full use of the dispute settlement mechanism to improve trading environment, and the aquatic enterprise should respond to trade friction actively together with the help of fishery industry association,and what's more important is focusing on improving product's quality and develop new markets to enhance competition ability and reduce trade friction risk.