| As a node of logistic network, logistics park is a center of goods turnover, sorting, storage, delivery and information disposal. It supports the development of joint transportation and can effectively integrate physical distribution resources. Also it can drive the economic progress of city. But the construction of logistics park needs lots of fund and long time to build and has different risk in different periods. The investor and collaborator of logistics park lack of risk awareness and instruction of relative risk management theory. So it is necessary to bring the theory of investment risk appraisal into logistics park construction project. At one side, investor can observe the largest security guarantee at the least cost. At another side, it can enrich the theory of construction project investment risk.The paper takes the basic logistic theory and construction project risk management theory as foundation and absorbs advanced experience of outstanding distribution park in the world. It discusses the operation mode of logistics park including construction pattern, management pattern and profit pattern of logistics park from our country's existing situation. At the same time, it combines the grayness and fuzziness of risk appraisal and does some research from traditional risk analysis methods and comprehensive integration methods from qualitative to quantitative and WSR theory. As follows, first of all, it does break even and sensitive analysis of NS logistics park construction project in Qingzhou city of Shandong province. Then, it computes the IRR, NPV and dynamic investment recoupment period. At last, it founds two models. One is Monte Carlo Simulation model of logistics park construction project invest risk which is based Crystal Ball soft. Another is the entire risk appraisal model of logistics park construction project invest risk which uses DHGF integration method. Through analyzing, we know the project is feasible and the risk of the project is above medium. |
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