Research On The Optimization Performance Of China's Manufacturing Goods Export Trade Structure

The researches of trade structure and its influencing factors have been widespread concern in recent years. Existing literatures are mainly about factor endowments, industrial structure, FDI, policy environment and so on, rarely about technology and its relevant factors, and studies on the quality and efficiency of the structural upgrading has just in its infancy. However, these studies mostly reflect the economic results, and it is difficult to effectively grasp the future trends, not to mention the reflection of the quality and efficiency of the structural upgrading. This thesis took technology and the adaptive research of technical efficiency which were the sustainable influencing factors of the trade development and structural optimization as the entry point to study the quality and efficiency of structural optimization of Chinese export under resource constraints, and then to evaluated the appropriate technical structure of export industries with different technological value-added.Firstly, this thesis used the latest analysis method of technology structures of export and Malmqusit index to calculate export trade structure and the TFP decomposition of China's Manufacture's industries, and then made a descriptive analysis of the link of the statistical data. In the mechanism analysis section, it systematically analyzed the impact path of technology and efficiency on industrial export and its structure based on the traditional and modern trade theory. The four mechanisms were trade effect of production, scale economies effect, resource reallocation effect and theory of appropriate technical structure. The experimental analysis aimed to use panel data model to assess the mechanism of the effect of technology and efficiency on export structure in different sectors through introducing interaction terms, and then evaluated the appropriateness of technology structure of the industries. Result shows that the effects of technology and efficiency but not factor inputs play more important roles on promoting exports. There is a serious gap between the contribution of technological and efficiency in the industries with medium-tech value-added and high-tech value-added. It means that technological progress is incompatible with its factor endowments, and it isn't the best technology structures of export. After introducing interaction terms, it is found that the impact of technology and efficiency which through the effects of scale economies and resource reallocation on the industrial export are slight, while efficiency with capital allocation effect has played a little negative impact on export, as well as the scale economies effect of high-tech industry and the technical labor allocation effect of high-tech and low-tech industries. As far as efficiency with labor allocation effect of high-tech and low-tech industries are insignificant. It is mainly related to the technical applicability of high-tech industry and the quality of China's current labor force. It is noteworthy that China's manufacturing efficiency has shown a continued negative growth trend in recent years, which will bring enormous pressure for the further promotion. Finally, the paper provides some specific policy suggestions based on the research findings.