The Relationship Between Industrial Structure And Economic Growth

The impact of industrial structure is an important factor in economic development, from the view of experience about globe world economic development, it can be found that the economic development has an obviously stage characteristics. In the different development stage, the emphasis is different, and the leading industry is different too. So there are different industry constructions in different economic development stage. The work is based on verifying the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth, by analyzing and testing the data of china's industrial structure and economic growth by 1978-2010, and comparing the industrial structure internationally. The result shows that there is an long-term equilibrium relationship between china's industrial structure and economic growth, but the industrial structure is irrational at this stage. The first and second industry have a relatively large proportion. And at the same time, the economic growth can be effectively stimulated by expand the proportion of tertiary industry output.This paper has five chapters:chapter one, the issues. This chapter describes the state and the exiting problems of china's industrial structure since the reform and opening as well as the significance of relationship between industrial structure and economic growth. Chapter two, the literature review. This chapter summarizes the research from nation to the abroad. Chapter three, the test to the theoretical models of relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth, Including the Granger causality test models used for analyzing the relationship between changes of industrial structure and economic growth, as well as the cointegration models.Chapter four, the empirical test to the industrial structure and economic growth. Firstly, analysis the process by using gray correlation analysis method and comparing per capita GDP with the three industrial structures. Then analysis the industrial structure of 'BRIC' by using the three changings of industrial structure, contribution rate, similarity coefficient and the changing rate of industrial structure. Later, test the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth by using Granger causality test method. The result shows that the adjustment of china's industrial structure has promoted the economic growth, but the economic growth has not promoted the industrial structure. Then what is the influence on the industrial structure change to the economic growth? This paper makes an empirical analysis by using the cointegration test mode. As a result, the most outstanding contribution to economic growth is the second industry during 1978-2010, the second contribution to economic growth is the third industry, and the smallest contribution of economic growth is the first industry. Since the reform and open policy, the contribution of the first industry to the economic growth is bigger than the first industry and the third industry, and the rapid growth on the second industry is related to the higher output on the second industry.At the same time, the contribution on the third industry to the economic growth is also big. The third industry with an average annual growth rate is 10.1% during 1978-2010. Chapter 5, research conclusions and policy recommendations. The research conclusions includes:the change of industrial structure and economic growth in the long-term stability of exists between the collaborative relationship in China; the change of industrial structure on economic growth has obvious effect in China; the influence on the economic growth to the change of industrial structure in statistical sense is not significant in China. At last this paper puts forward relevant policy Suggestions.