Simulation On Population Distribution Of Inner Mongolia Based On GIS

Population distribution is the spatial expression of populationdevelopment process，which interacts with the regional economic andsocial development level. In order to accurately simulate the spatialdistribution of population and to describe the characteristics of populationdistribution，this paper took Inner Mongolia as the research area，calculated respectively the imbalance index and concentration index，gotthe regional characteristics of Inner Mongolia population distribution，and analyzed the Inner Mongolia population growth characteristics of1990～2000and2000～2010； selected population data for101countiesin Inner Mongolia of2010，combined with TM images of2010，climatedata，DEM data，soil data，hydrological data，traffic data，distributionof residential data and administration data，realized the Inner Mongoliaspatializing of population data in2010，finally，forecasted the101counties population of the Inner Mongolia from2011to2015by usingGM (1，1) gray model，and simulated population density distribution ofInner Mongolia in2015. The main results are as follows：(1)1990~2000，the total population of Inner Mongolia increased by2252100，with an average annual growth rate of1.01%，average annualgrowth rate of each administrative unit population range from-1.37%to4.60%；2000~2010，the total population of Inner Mongolia increasedby968500，with an average annual growth rate of0.41%，average annualgrowth rate of each administrative unit population change from0.84%to5%，all indexes were decreased than previous stage(1990～2000). Ingeneral，most of Inner Mongolia population growth rate maintained at0%~1%. The higher population growth rate areas concentrated in theMidwest area of Inner Mongolia，including Hohhot，Baotou，Ordos and Wuhai.(2)From1990~2000，the Inner Mongolia population center of gravitywhole migrate southwest， population distribution has concentratedtendency from northwest to southeast. Population largely concentrated intwo regions： in Midwest area of Inner Mongolia， the populationdistribution is mainly concentrated in the city of Wuhai，south ofBayannaoer，South Baotou，major area of Hohhot and the south ofWulanchabu；in the eastern region of Inner Mongolia，the populationdistribution are mainly concentrated in Tongliao and Chifeng，Xinganmeng and east of HulunBeier. The population in the Midwest region ofhigher concentration， while in Chifeng and Tongliao populationdistribution is relatively uniform.(3)From the results of population prediction and simulation of101counties in Inner Mongolia from2011to2015，the highest density valueof population from28219/km2increased to29439/km2. The populationaverage annual growth rate of most counties is between0%～3%，reached85，accounting for84.16%of the total population；negativegrowth of county has9，accounting for8.91%of the total; counties of theaverage annual growth rate more than3%have7，accounting for6.93%of the total. The average annual growth rate of population in the top threecities are Wuhai，Baotou and Ordos，all of them are located in the westernarea of Inner Mongolia. From2010to2015，the annual growth rate oftotal population is0.72%，which in the five cities (Hulunbeier，Xinganmeng，Tongliao，Chifeng and Xilinguolemeng) in eastern area of InnerMongolia，while the annual growth rate of total population is1.54%，which in the seven cities (Hohhot，Baotou，Ordos，Wulanchabu，Bayannaoer，Wuhai and Alashan) in western area of Inner Mongolia. Inthe next five years，the western region of Inner Mongolia populationgrowth is faster than eastern area of Inner Mongolia.