Research On Development Of Low-carbon Economy Based On SD Model And Countermeasure In State-owned Forest Zone Of Heilongjiang Province

In recent years the economy of Heilongjiang Province developed rapidly and the growth rate of GDP reached more than11%for five consecutive years, but at the same time facing the ecological and environmental problems. In this context, limiting carbon emissions, develop low-carbon economy is imperative. The forest is an important choice for developing low-carbon economy and reducing carbon emissions. The rise and fall of the state forest is closely linked to economic development and ecological environment construction for Heilongjiang province and the entire country. Therefore achieving the sustainable development and the sustainable management of forest resources of Heilongjiang state-owned forest has to seize the opportunity of low-carbon economy.System dynamics is good at solving nonlinear, multivariable, high times, complex time-varying system, which can be used in developing low-carbon economy. In this paper, system dynamics simulation tools are used to resolve the low-carbon economy complex system of state-owned forest, by building a computer simulation model to predict the current status of low-carbon economic development, simulating the dynamic rules and processes of this system, combining qualitative and quantitative analysis and basing on the simulation results put forward corresponding policy recommendations.This paper regards system science as the guiding ideology, based on the brief discussion of the the domestic and overseas scholars relevant explore about low-carbon economy in the state-owned forest region and the application of system dynamics in the sustainable development area, using the system scientific thought and system dynamics method to study the idea of low-carbon economy of Heilongjiang state-owned forest, seems it as a whole system,determines the boundaries of the system and designs the evaluation index system of state-owned forest in developing low-carbon economy. Based on this, build the system dynamics model of low-carbon economic development system in Heilongjiang state-owned forest and determine the dynamic equations of the model. Run the model and verify the validity and accuracy of the model by validation and parameter sensitivity test from different angles and levels. Followed by adjusting the different parameter values of the model implement policy simulation, and analysis the simulation results obtained. Finally, according to the policy simulation results give suggestions of state-owned forest to develop low-carbon economy. The results of this study will have important meaning for the government and related organizations in decision-making the development of low-carbon economy.