The System Dynamic Model Construction Of The Socio-economic Development Of The State-owned Forest In Heilongjiang Province

The state-owned forest is our country’s state-owned timber base,which is the key force to ensure economic growth and protecting the environment.The state-owned forest in Heilongjiang Province is our country’s major state-owned forest.In the beginning of the20th century,the country strengthen the development and construction of the state-owned forest,which made a significant contribution to national economic and social development.However,due to a long time of simple pursuit of national economic development,forest resources were seriously damaged and the ecological environment was deteriorated.To solve these problems,combined with the socio-economic development of the state-owned forest in Heilongjiang Province, we establish a system dynamics model to provide recommendations for the socio-economic development of the state-owned forest.This paper based on system dynamics method research and under the guidance of the current development situation of the state-owned forest in Heilongjiang Province.First,make sure the causal model feedback loop and rendering system SD flow chart,while determining the main variables and equations of the system,with2000year’s statistical data of the state-owned forest in Heilongjiang Province as the initial data.Second,compare the real data of the2007,2008and2009years with the operation result of the model,testing the validity of the model.Finally,analysis the operation result of the model,compare the development trend of the state-owned forest in Heilongjiang Province with the different coefficient conditions,and provide more scientific and more accurate technical support for the socio-economic development of the state-owned forest in Heilongjiang Province.This paper simulate three different conditions,natural development condition,moderate development condition and high-speed development condition.Analysis the results of research showed that moderate development condition is conducive to the socio-economic development of the state-owned forest.By analyzing the results,to give the more practical and effective suggestions for the socio-economic development of the state-owned forest in Heilongjiang Province.