Research On Reglonal Carrying Capacelty Evalution Of The Yan-Long-Tu Area

The contradiction of the area development and resource environment continue to deepen with the advancement of-urbanization. In the background of Yan-Long-Tu economic integration, how to coordinate the relationship between economic development and the area resources, environment and the social development is one of the major issues of YAN-LONG-TU regional development.Referenced the predecessors research results and with the relation between human and land theory as the theoretical basis, the study used theoretical analysis, expert consultation and frequency count methods to construct the evaluation index system of the YAN-LONG-TU regional carrying capacity. The index system contains4subsystems and39specific indexes. The4subsystems are resources subsystem, environment subsystem, economy subsystem and social subsystem. The study constructed the measurement model of the YAN-LONG-TU regional carrying capacity using state space method, researched the area of loading status. In this paper, we studied the YAN-LONG-TU regional carrying capacity during2006-2010. Through the calculation of Ideal state carrying capacity, Practical condition carrying capacity and loading rate, we got that the bearing capacity of the whole area is relatively lower, but the difference within this region the area carrying capacity of Yan ji city have been relatively big, bearing rate more than1from2008. This shows that Yan ji city regional carrying capacity appearing overload phenomenon after2008. The area carrying capacity of Tu men city and Long jing city have been relatively small, they can carry in the state. Through the study of each subsystem, the whole area of YAN-LONG-TU subsystem supply and demand ratio is rising, the subsystem of Yan ji city are in the load of higher level; the subsystem of Tu men city and Long jing city are in the load of lower level besides resource load capacity outside. This is because Yan ji city is political, economic and cultural center of Yan bian Korean Autonomous prefecture, it has more advantages, relative to the Long jing and Tu men.This study forecasted the YAN-LONG-TU regional carrying capacity using the grey BP network model. We got the result of the regional carrying capacity from2011to2015. In the next five years, Yan ji city regional carrying capacity will continue to grow; Tu men city regional carrying capacity will slow growth or down; Long jing city regional carrying capacity will volatile growth trend. Finally, according to the research results, combined with the background of YAN-LONG-TU economic integration, with the purpose of the area developing healthy and sustainable, the study give some suggestions in the following aspects that area resources, environment, economy, social development and policy.