Evaluation Of Oil Maritime Transport Security Based On Cloud Model

In recent years, with the rapid development of the economy in China, the demandof oil is also growing rapidly.But due to the limitations of the domestic resourceendowments, China’s oil production grows slowly, and the gap between oil supply anddemand is widening year after year.As a result, imported oil becomes an importantmean to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand. In2010,China’s netoil imports is255million tons, representing a substantial increase of16.6percent.Dependence on foreign oil has risen to55%.Currently, more than80percentof China’s imported oil needs maritime transport, and about90percent of maritimeshipping is born by the outer.There is a big risk for ccean transportation safety relativeto the land transport.At the same time, China imports a huge number of oil, and theimport network is very complex which relates to many uncertainties just like routes,loading and unloading port, across the ocean, coastal and even inland navigation areasand so on.Many literatures about oil security evaluation focused on the oil supplysecurity, few studies addressed the safety of maritime transport.The issue has notattracted sufficient attention.It is necessary to carry out an effective security riskassessment and management of oil and maritime transport.How to scientific evaluateof China’s oil imports and maritime transport security is a major theoretical andpractical issues to ensure the safety of China’s imported oil.Now, the research onChina’s oil maritime transport safety is still in its infancy, and there is no system onevaluation methods evaluation of oil and maritime transport security.The articleselects fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model, and uses inevaluation of the safety of shipping routes.Through using the uncertainty artificialintelligence, it maximizes the retention of the safety assessment of the inherentambiguity and uncertainty, making the results of the comprehensive evaluation closerto the real, and strives to carry out a number of innovative research in this regard.On the basis of the results of the reference to the literature, this article firstoverviews the oil marine transportation market of the world, and then analyzes thesource of China’s imports of oil and maritime transport, maritime security of shippingroutes.The second part of the article analyzes and compares the methods that commonly used in safety assessment as expert scoring method, AHP and fuzzycomprehensive evaluation method.Based on the shortcomings of the above methodsand the characteristics of the oil and maritime safety evaluation, this article proposesfuzzy evaluation methods based on the cloud model, and analyzes the origin of thecloud model of the basic theory.The third part according to the principles establishedby the indicator system, establishes multi-level of the oil and maritime transportsecurity evaluation index system respectively, from four aspects as the safety of oilcargo transport, tankers and their equipment safe shipping routes safe and emergencyresponse capacity to emergencies.The fourth part uses the cloud model in theevaluation of oil and maritime security, attributes factors and reviews the concept ofcloud model as a criteria, gives each attribute a more scientific and reasonable weightof the cloud, and then based on qualitative judgments of the safety in China’s oilshipping and quantitative data for the actual cloud model with single factors,compares the similarity with the standard cloud model to determine the most similarreviews cloud, and final completion of a comprehensive evaluation of the safety ofChina’s oil shipping.Based on the above analysis, the fifth part analyzes the finaljudgment, the index weight distribution and the single factor to judge, proposingeffective counter measures and suggestions from the perspective of stable oil supplyand protecting the security of oil shipping channel.