The Study Of Tech-talent Demand Prediction Based On The Perspective Of High-tech Industry In Shandong Province

The Twenty-first Centuries is the dominant of science and technology in the eraof global competition, and technological talent is the focus of this competition.30years of reform and opening up, China’s economy has achieved sustained and rapidgrowth, but now it is facing the problem of industrial structural adjustment, industrialtechnology upgrading and the problem of economic development quality. In recentyears, as the bibcock of China’s high-tech industry development, it drive constantlyimprove of the technology content of various economic compositions, to meet theopportunity and challenge which brings by the intellectual economy, the strategydrives by economy already been saw effect. Linking the development strategy ofnational high-tech industry, Shandong Province economy, and social has made greatprogress.“The Development Plan of The Yellow River delta Efficient EcologicalEconomic Zone" was officially approved on November23,2009, and was designatedas a national strategy;“Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone Development Plan"approved by the State Council in January4,2011, has become the first nationaldevelopment strategy in the bureau year of “Twelfth Five-Year Plan ". Having twonational strategies, Shandong Province is facing a historical opportunity, but also ahuge challenge. To earnestly implement the two major strategic planning, completeindustry successfully, adjust economic structure smoothly, Tech-talent is the key.Respond to domestic and international macroeconomic environment changespromptly, give high attention to the construction of Tech-talent team as our countrysustainable development. To ensure strong intellectual and talent support to supportbuilding our scientific and technological innovation system and promote theimplementation of the technology and education strategy. Study the demandprediction of Tech-talent of Shandong High-tech industry, and based on this Providereferences for Shandong Province to training and attract Tech-talent, it is extremelynecessary.On the basis of the existing domestic and foreign talent prediction study, Thispaper uses qualitative and quantitative methods, to qualitative analysis the33factorsthat influence the demand Tech-talent from three aspects of the social development,economic development and the development firstly. Then, select9indexes that havethe strongest correlation with Tech-talent using multivariate statistical analysismethod. The third part is the core of the article, combing the high-tech statistics ofShandong, using "GM (1,1) grey prediction model", econometric forecasting model"and" BP neural network model ", to forecast the Tech-talent demand during the yearof2011-2015.the results showed that all the three kinds of model is fitting.but, whencombing the three models, the result of the combination model is more Accurate and reliable.The article tries to be innovative in the following two aspects:①acomprehensive analysis of the three factors of social development, economicdevelopment and tech-development which impact of high-tech industries Tech-talentdemand. And then selected9ones which has the most closely relation with thedemand of the Tech-talent from the33index factors.②the combination of GM (1,1)gray prediction model, econometric forecasting model and BP neural networkprediction model, to predict the demand of the Tech-talent. So the article expanded theusing field of the combination model, opened up a new path for the demand predict ofthe Tech-talent.