| Facing with resources exhaustion, Ecological damage, Environmental pollution，environmental deterioration and other issues，sustainable development is becoming aninevitable choice and an eternal theme to human survival and development. How to analyzeand estimate the situation of sustainable development of one region in quantitativemeasurement is the forefront of research and one of the focuses of the sustainabledevelopment. In recent years, as a quantitative evaluation tool of regional sustainabledevelopment, the ecological footprint model gets widely reorganization by many scholars ofthe relevant international institutions, government departments, research institutions. So, theecological footprint model is an important method for the quantitative evaluation of regionalsustainable development.By using the ecological footprint model, the per capita ecological footprint, ecologicalcarrying capacity and ecological deficit/surplus of Liaoning Province were calculated andcomparative analyzed from2001-2010. The increasing factors driven by the ecologicalfootprint of Liaoning Province were analyzed by using partial least squares, and based on thecalculation and analysis of per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity ofLiaoning Province in the latest decade, the per capita ecological footprints of LiaoningProvince from2011to2015were predicted.The results showed that, Liaoning Province was at an average ecological deficit statefrom2001to2010, the per capita ecological footprint was rising year by year, and the overallecological carrying capacity was in a way of the wavy development. The per capita ecologicalfootprint was2.17559hm~2in2001, but up to3.53922hm~2in2010, it increased1.363634hm~2per capita in the decade, the average annual growth rate was about5.0%. Among sixtypes of ecological footprint, only the per capita ecological footprint of arable land reducedfrom0.15140hm~2per capita in2001to0.10766hm~2per capita in2010, the average annualreduction rate was about3.3%. The remaining five categories of ecological footprint showedan increasing trend, the highest growth of ecological footprint per capita was building land,it’s ecological footprint per capita increased from0.0011hm~2per capita in2001to0.00244hm~2per capita in2010, it increased0.00134hm~2per capita in a decade with an average annual growth rate of8.2%. the following one is fossil energy land, it increased from1.70011hm~2per capita in2000to3.01169hm~2per capita in2010with an average annualgrowth rate of5.9%. The ecological footprint per capita of waters averagely increased in thethird place, with an average annual growth rate of5.2%; while as the per capita ecologicalfootprint of grassland and woodland are slightly increased with an average annual growth rateof4.4%and1.9%, respectively.With the software of SIMCA-P11.5, the significant impact factors of ecological footprintof Liaoning Province were analyzed by using of partial least squares method. The order of theimportance of the factors is as follows, GDP growth rate, energy consumption annual growthrate, the total number of public steam (electric) buses, energy consumption total output, Thefirst industry output, output value of post and telecommunication services, annual freightvolume, Year-end road length, per capita GDP, GDP, fixed asset investment, total retail salesof social consumer goods per capita and total value of the secondary industry. Then wepredicted that ecological footprint per capita of Liaoning Province will present with gradualupward trend in the period2011-2015, the ecological footprint per capita will grow to3.774hm~2per capita in2015.Finally, according to the actual situation in Liaoning Province; strategies andrecommendations in the future developments of Liaoning Province were come up with topromote social and economic development in Liaoning Province running in the ecologicallysustainable track and to provide some reference for the government departments to formulatedevelopment strategies and plans better. |
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