The Risk Identification And Quantitative Research On The Investment Decision-making Of Monolayer Industrial Plants

With the constant updates of our cities and adjustments of industrial structures, alarge number of used industrial plants have been left in the heart of cities. Soapparently the reuse of old industrial plants has become a new trend. Reuse of the oldmonolayer-industrial plants is faced with more complex risks in the investmentdecision-making stage due to its special nature. So the analysis of risks in this stage isessential. Based on the domestic and international risk research of monolayer re-use ofold industrial plants, this paper was conducted with monolayer old industrial plantsinvestment decision-making risk identification and quantitative research. From thedevelopers’ view, it introduced the concept of reuse of monolayer old industrial plantsand theories of risks management, and focused on identifing, analysing and evaluatingthe risk of stage of monolayer old industrial plants investment, combining thecharacteristics of the projects and its risks’ factors. The risk identification is the firststep of the risk management of the monolayer old industrial plants in thedecision-making stage. Risk identification was actually inquiring, counting andanalyzing every potential risk existed in the projects, establishing a list of risks in orderto provide the prerequisite for risk management. Based on the field research, the authorconducted the major risk factors of reuse of monolayer old industrial plants investmentdecisions in the form of questionnaires, and analyzed those risk factors by means ofcases and literature analysis, establishing the risk assessment system for re-use of asingle old industrial plant investment decisions. Then, quantify the major risk factorsof the monolayer old industrial plants using the improved hierarchy analysis anddetermine each index weight. Finally, determine the level of the risk of the monolayer old industrial plants used by means of extenics evaluation method. This paper analyzedthe risk factors of investment decision-making of the monolayer old industrial plantsquantitatively and qualitatively, providing a new idea for risk assessment. In the end ofthis paper, the risk evaluation model of the monolayer old industrial plants was testedby real examples, and risk level of the decision-making phase of the project investmentwas determined, which provided a theoretical basis for preventing or avoiding risks inthe investment decision-making of the monolayer old industrial plants.