The Evaluation Of Impacts Of Climate Change On Rice Production And Efficiency

The issue of climate change is closely related to human production and life. Due to climate warming, the frequency of meteorological disasters is increasing, storms, floods and heat injury, winds and other extreme weather disasters begin to increase and the number of agricultural pests goes to be more and wider.The natural risks faced by the agricultural production continues to increase. Sustainable development of agriculture is facing new conflicts; therefore, the research of the impact of climate change on agriculture can’t be limited at natural constraints, while the reaction and interaction of socio-economic factors should be taken into account. Only in this way, the study results can face the actual development of Chinese agriculture and make the guidance. For this reason, in order to protect our food security and sustainable agricultural development, we should avoid negative impact of climate change on China’s socio-economic and natural environment and take full advantages of the potential opportunities of climate change on China’s agricultural development, while avoid disadvantages.Rice is the most important food crops in China; its total output nearly half of the grain production. Rice production is largely influenced by the climate change. Jiangsu Province is the main rice production area in China, and knowing the suitable weather conditions of rice growth is important to raise the rice production.Through the establishment of the stochastic frontier beyond logarithmic production function model, this paper use econometric methods to study relationships between climate factor and rice yield empirically based on the analysis of the trend of the rice yields and climatic factors at the growth period in Jiangsu Province via building the HP filter model, and carry on further study on the impact of climate change on the rice productive efficiency; Finally, this paper discuss the strategies being made to adjust to the change of climate to attempt to ensure the food security. The main conclusions are:1. The overall status features of rice production in Jiangsu are large fluctuations, low peaks, deep trough, and average potential volatility in the early and gradually reduced fluctuations and weakening average potential volatility. There are some differences of climate change in three regions in Jiangsu Province, the temperature in Sunan region, Jianghuai region and Huaibei region showed an upward trend, but there is no significant trend of the precipitation in the three regions.And the sunshine hours in Huaibei region and Sunan region showed a downward trend, but the sunshine hours in Jianghuai area had no obvious trend. 2. Average precipitation and average temperature in the production period had the negative impact on the rice in Jiangsu province and sunshine hours had a positive influence. At the term of each growing stage, sunshine at tillering stage showed significant and positive influence; precipitation and sunshine at jointing booting stage of showed a negative effect significantly; temperature at the heading and flowering stage and grain filling stage was a significant negative impact on the rice production; sunshine at the maturity stage had a positive influence. on the rice production, Climatic factors had different contribution rates on the improvement of rice production at different growth period in different regions.3. The trend of rice’s productive technology efficiency was different in every region in Jiangsu Province. Technical efficiency of rice production presented an increasing trend in Xuzhou, Lianyungang and Yancheng, which showed a decreasing trend in Changzhou and Nantong. There was no obvious trend of technical efficiency of rice production in Nanjing and Yangzhou. Different cities had a big difference on inter-annual productive technical efficiency of rice and the regional diversity fluctuated. The extreme temperatures, precipitation, light and temperature ratio and wind velocity were the main climate influencing factors.4. Finally, this paper put forward some measures and suggestions for address climate change according to the research conclusions. Mainly Included:1)establishing and perfecting agro-meteorological forecasting and disaster warning system,2)adjusting agricultural structure and plant structure and planting,3)strengthening the agricultural extension work to adapt to climate change,4)promoting technological progress combined with climate resources,5)promoting the agricultural transformation of low-carbon, and6)improving the agricultural policy system.