Research On Constructing And Completing Industrial Chain Of Service For The Aged In Shanghai

Aging is an evitable development trend of human society. It is not only thekey social problem in current world, but also a strategic issue involving with manyaspects including economy, politics, social development and population planning.China has been a country with aging population. The fast development of agingpopulation provides great space for constructing and expanding socialist marketeconomy, and provides good opportunity to develop the industry of service for theaged and open the market for the aged.On the18th CPC National Congress Party held in Nov2012, President HuJintao emphasized in the report,“positively dealing with aging population and greatlydeveloping service for the aged and industry.” In order to promote and develop theservice for the aged with Chinese characteristics and satisfy various specialconsumption demands of aging population, the development of the service for theaged is chosen as the research topic. Taking Shanghai for an example, through theanalysis on background and current situation of the service for the aged andexperience of international metropolis, a complete top-to-bottom general ideal of theindustrial chain for the aged consisted of core service, real estate, pillar industry, andradiation industry is proposed to drive the upstream service and downstream servicefor the aged.The paper includes5parts: the first part is consisted of Chapter1andChapter2. Research background, meaning, relevant theoretical basis, and serviceexperience of foreign developed countries are introduced in this part, leading to afoundation for further research in the following. After the discussion about overallsituation of the service for the aged, current situation of service for the aged inShanghai is explained. Through the questionnaire survey, it is found that the phenomena including longer life and higher income of aging population andfunctional change of family structure is the beneficial factor promoting the industry ofservice for the aged. In addition, from the angles including objective economiccondition and subjective will of aging population, the necessity and feasibility ofservice for the aged in Shanghai is analyzed qualitatively. The third part includesChapter4and Chapter5. Holter-Winter non-seasonal model and BP neural networkare used to predict life and income of aging population, and conclude that futurepopulation will have longer life and higher income. Then, the necessity and feasibilityof the industry of service for the aged in Shanghai is analyzed quantitatively. Basedon this, an idea of constructing the industrial chain of service for the aged is proposedin Chapter4to Chapter6. In this part, details of the industrial chain including core,main body, and end are designed internally. Then, influencing factors including agingmarket and consumption demand of aging population and environmental factorsincluding economy, policy, and society are analyzed externally. In the last part of thepaper, relevant suggestions are proposed to the enterprises, government, and agingpopulation based on the industrial chain of service for the aged. Thus, the industrialchain of service for the aged can be further promoted and the development of serviceof the aged can be further promoted.The innovation of the paper is: break through single local view of currentindustry of service for the aged and construct the industrial chain of service for theaged based on wider research view. As to research methods, actuarial model ofinsurance is used to evaluate and predict residual life of aging population of differentages based on Holter-Winter non-seasonal model. Meanwhile, through relevant dataacquisition from the industry of service for the aged in Shanghai, BP neural networkalgorithm is used for the empirical analysis on per capital disposable income ofShanghai and promotes the research on the necessity and feasibility of industrial chainof the service for the aged.