The Research Of Energy Economy Sustainable Development In China

Energy issues are the key issues of the relationship between national economic growthand sustainable development. With rapid economic development and the acceleratedprocess of urbanization and industrialization in China, energy demand is growing fast.However, a series of problem of energy efficiency and economic growth and energystructure further aggravated the contradiction between energy supply and energy demand.Energy consumption is dominated by coal, and the relative shortage of high-quality energyis increasing the pressure on the environment. The main reason of air pollution andgreenhouse gas emissions is due to caused by coal consumption. With above situationcontinuing, the pressure on economic development and ecological environment will begreater. Therefore, to build a stable energy-economic system faces major challenges.Base on the analysis of energy-economic theory and sustainable development theory,energy-economic system is divided into four sub-systems in the paper combined with thepresent situation of energy-economic development, such as energy, economy, environmentand population. Then, the paper predicts the system in a long term and carries a simulationcomparison of two different plans by using the idea of systems engineering, and build acomprehensive evaluation index system for energy economy sustainable development.Firstly, the paper analyzes the structure of energy-economic system model in Chinaand predicts the model index value, then draws a system dynamic flow chart, and then getsthe predicted results. The results show that: next20years, the growth of China’s totalenergy consumption will be slowdown, but the main sources still is the coal; theproduction of electricity continues to increase, its main sources is coal electricity; theproportion of hydro-nuclear in total energy consumption will be increased slowly, naturalgas will be increased rapidly, but the proportion is still low; energy intensity issignificantly reducing, but always at a high level; per capita GDP will be increased fast,but now in the lower level of the world; environmental pressure and carbon dioxideemissions continue to increase; energy consumption growth rate is faster than population growth, per capita energy consumption continues to increase, the country is still in thestage of industrialization.Secondly, the paper studies the composition of the comprehensive evaluation indexsystem of sustainable development for China’s energy economy, and then builds acomprehensive evaluation model for energy-economic system by entropy method andTopsis method as well as a combination of the two methods. The results show that: duringthe year of2001-2010, capacity for sustainable development presented an enhanced trend,but coordination capacity first increased and then decreased; level of energy andpopulation development presented a trend of fluctuation improve; level of economicdevelopment changed the poor state from a strong state, and index value increased year byyear; but the level of environmental development presented a trend of fluctuation reduce,and significantly increased in2003, decreased in2008.Finally, based on the above conclusions, the recommendations as follows: givepriority to energy conservation and improve energy efficiency; adjust economic structure,allocate reasonably energy resources and reduce dependence on coal; increase investmentto the exploration of oil and natural gas; increase the capacity for sustainable developmentand coordination at the same time; plan coordinated development for four subsystem, andthus continue to promote the sustainable development of China’s energy economy.