| The last two decades has witnessed the emergence of the drastic growth of capital goods. That is because China has participated in the new international division in form of the processing trade. China has imported core components and capital goods in large scale and exported the products after processing and assembling. As the carrier of advanced techniques, the import of capital goods has played an significant role in promoting technological progress and innovation, as well as total factor productivity in relevant fields. Furthermore, these imports are also of great importance to promote the process of industrialization and the rapid economic growth.For the past decades, China has imported capital goods mainly from the developed countries. Capital goods produced from developed countries are always of high capital and technological level. China has greatly benefited from importing these products in many ways, such as making up for supply gaps and resources shortage, narrowing the technology gap with developed countries, improving the efficiency of the allocation of resources, speeding up the pace of economical growth and upgrading the industrial structure. But, in recent years, the weight of capital goods import from USA, Japan, France, Germany and other developed industrialized countries in Chinese total imports has been decreasing; on the contrary, that from South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and other developing countries in Asia has been increasing. The shift from developed to less developed countries with regard to technology is obvious. In comparison to developed countries, the level of economic development and R&D input are always low in developing countries, thus the capital goods produced by them are of low technological level. This is bound to influence the technology spillover effect on capital goods import. Explore the influence of the shift of China capital goods import source countries on technology spillover is of great practical significance in selecting import strategies.After reviewing the related literature, the part of introduction points out that economists home and abroad had done much work on studying the technology spillover effects of capital goods import, the influential factors and the cross-country differences of international technology spillover. These lay a good foundation for further study. Based on the review of previous researches, chapter2shows the theories of technology spillover of capital goods import, and gives an analysis of theoretical foundation and effect mechanisms. In chapter3, using UN Comtrade data, and from the perspectives of trade value, trade structure and trade partners’location, this chapter describes China’s present conditions of capital goods import. Chapter5,the key part of this paper, empirically studies the technology spillover of the shift of capital goods import source countries. This paper computes Malmquist productivity index, technical progress index of China’s6main capital goods producing industries from1996-2009by DEA. At the same time, builds a CH model by using the value of imported capital goods during1996-2009from developed and developing countries respectively to study the influence of the shift on the technology spillover effect. The results show that the influence is negative. Though cheap and applicable, capital goods imported from developing countries have adverse effect on China’s technical progress. For the enterprises import these products, the path dependence exists.Finally, based on the above research, chapter5proposes policy recommendations on the following issues:Firstly, augment the size of capital goods import and upgrade its structure. Secondly, give higher preference to developed countries, continue China’s heavy involvement in developed countries’trade transactions. Thirdly, apply flexible trade measures to promote China’s gains from trade. Finally, enlarge research and development and improve our capability of independent innovation. |
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