Study On The Sustainability Of Zhejiang Provience

A series of improvements of the ecological sustainability research method are present in this thesis. Compared with the parameters adopted in the traditional EF model, such as world-average productivity, conversion factors and yield factors, the ones adopted in the modified model, including transformities and emergy density, are relatively stable, and thus the calculation results are more reliable. In this thesis, the sustainability of Zhejiang province is studied in the application of the improved footprint model.Resources can be classified into renewable resources and non-renewable resources. As a result of non-renewable resources will be exhausted, so we use the emergy of renewable resources measure up ecological carrying capacity. What’s more, the consumption of biological products brings pressures on environment, which comes from the constraints of area production capacity. So the biological products calculate the productive footprint, while the energy resources calculate the consumption footprint.The annual ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint of Zhejiang province during2004-2011are calculated by the emergy&footprint model. Dynamic analysis and assessment of the present condition of the regional ecological sustainability are accomplished by calculating the per capita ecological deficit/surplus, ecological pressure index and ecological footprint diversity index. The calculation results show that there is a continuous increase in the per capita ecological deficit while the footprint diversity index decreased with each passing year. By2011, the improvement has been unsustainable.The order of the ecological footprint according to its scale in the major years is as follows:fossil fuel land> built-up land> arable land> water areas> forest> pasture. The fossil fuel land and built-up land have accounted to73%, while the ratio of water areas obviously insufficient. In addition, the utilization rate of energy is very low.The principal component analysis and entropy method evaluation of driving factors which influence sustainability shows:the ecological environment in Zhejiang province is unsustainable but the P-R-E system can remain sustainable state. The result shows the way of developing economy by damage the environment is still existing bonus. The rapid economic growth masked the negative effect of other factors.Using the grey prediction model forecast the ecologic capacity and ecologic footprint of Zhejiang Province. The prediction shows:(i) the ecologic pressure index will continue to rise during2013-2017(ii) the ecologic footprint diversity index will continue to decline and the rate will not show down (iii) the level of ecologic sustainability is decreased by the critical state to unsustainable state.Some practical measures are put forward to ensure the regional ecological sustainability:(i) control the increase of the population and enhance the public consciousness of the eco-environmental protection (ii) optimize the industrial structure and improve human resource (iii) convert the mode of the economic growth and establish the resource-economical production and consumption system (iv) raise R&D investment and develop marine economy (v) establish early-warning system of ecological sustainability and enhance the management of the ecological sustainability.